Did Barack Obama hit his first hiccup in the Facebook primaries race? He’s still gaining supporters (all the candidates are), but his rate of increased support was the lowest for the 7-day period between July 30 & August 6. He only gained 4.53% more supporters (the median rate for Democrats was +9.36%; the median rate for Republicans was +10.80%).
One possibility, of course, is that he’s peaked & isn’t likely to receive any more Facebook supporters. This seems unlikely, though, since Facebook continues to generate new users at an astronomical rate. It’s also nearly impossible (w/o access to internal Facebook data) to know how much of this change is due to internal volatility. In other words, Obama is generating fewer new Facebook supporters than he is losing previous supporters to other candidates.
Could this be a result of Obama’s foreign relations gaffe involving Pakistan? It might. If anything, the event saw his first (or his staff’s) major stumble in terms of foreign relations. Pakistan (for all its many, many flaws) is a key US ally. And fanning anti-US sentiment in the Middle East isn’t a position an anti-incumbent Democrat wants to do.
In the GOP race: Fred Thompson is still on a roll (+15.56%), John McCain seems to have gained new momentum (+12.33%), and so has Mike Huckabee (+14.67%). The weakest of the GOP Facebook candidates is Mitt Romney (+6.82%). Did the GOP just have a massive Facebook campaign? And when will Rudy Giuliani get on Facebook? Or is The New Republic Right in thinking Fred Thompson is the GOP nominee?
The only candidates on “surges” in the Democratic camp are candidates w/ no real shot at the White House: Dennis Kucinich (+13.78%), Joe Bidden (+12.50%), Mike Gravel (+13.44%). I’m still counting Gravel in the “Democrat” camp, though I’m not entirely sure he is. But the sharp increase of support for these fringe candidates leads me to suspect that perhaps potential Obama supporters are switching to other “anti-establishment” candidates.
