Today’s La Razón reports another potential modification to Bolivia’s presidential electoral system: lowering the minimum threshold for the presidential winner (from 50%+1 to 40%+1). There’s nothing inherently un-democratic about this move—since all thresholds are arbitrary conventions. Still, the opposition (the article cites a PODEMOS spokesperson) clearly sees this as an attempt to ensure Evo’s reelection (MAS is also seeking indefinite reelection of incumbent presidents) in light of his declining popular support in opinion polls.
The 40%+1 rule would only kick in if no candidate wins an absolute majority (50%+1) of the valid popular vote and the second runner up is behind by at least 10% of the vote. Thus, this rule is essentially little different than the set of provisions used in Nicaragua. In the even that the first place winner doesn’t win 50%+1 and the second runner up is behind by less than 10% the president would be elected by a second round runoff election.
My objection to this system is that this solution may not work well in a highly fragmented party system. Currently, Bolivian politics appears polarized between MAS & PODEMOS, but that’s only superficial. There are a number of smaller parties (both w/in & w/out the MAS & PODEMOS “big tents”) that suggest that a more “parliametnarized” style of politics may be more beneficial. Regardless of the runoff or a 40%+1 provisional threshold, Bolivia desperately needs an electoral system that encourages moderated multi-party politics & coalition building.
