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  • I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
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Evo up in polls

November 5, 2007
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Being swamped last week, I didn’t post about a number of items related to Bolivia. Apologies. But I wanted to go back and comment on the latest round of monthly opinion polling on Evo’s presidency.

Angus Reid Global Monitor posted the data on 31 October; the story ran in La Razón on 28 October. Evo is up another three points, from 59% in September to 62% in October. What does this mean?

Frankly, it’s a surprising jump, considering the fallout w/ a number of conflicts lately (the airport seizure, conflicts w/ prefects & mayors, and a host of other problems). October was not, on the whole, a smooth month in Bolivia. But the poll also showed a substantial decline in support for the constituent assembly (down to 54%). So, basically, Evo is up; the constituent assembly is down.

But the approval ratings are still highly regionalized. In the cities of La Paz & El Alto, Evo polls at 79% & 89%, respectively. In the cities of Cochabamba & Santa Cruz, Evo polls at 51% & 41%, respectively. The gap between El Alto & Santa Cruz is a substantial 48 points.

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Comments

The fact that Evo is offering to all citizens age 60 (used to be age 65) a retirement bonus of $b 200 a month for the rest of their life plus funeral bonus.... may be a big reason he is suddenly more popular with some segments. Of course, the problem is where is he getting the funds - and that is causing a whole segment of new disgruntled groups. Hey, your dad turns 60 in April, I wonder if he'll sign up to get his monthly pension.

Posted by mom November 5, 2007 7:12 PM

    I probably shouldn't argue with anybody's mom, but Evo is not "suddenly more popular", at least overall. These numbers, 59% and 62%, are about what he's been getting for 2 years. (But maybe you right for "some segments," as you said.)

    Isn't it amazing that he still polls 41% in Santa Cruz? What's going on? Are they including Venezuelan soldiers and Cuban doctors in the survey?

    Posted by John November 6, 2007 6:56 PM

      John:

      He, he. I'm sure my mom will let it slide. But if you look at this graphic, you'll notice that Evo's popularity has had ups & downs, as reported by Angus Reid. He hit a low 50% in October 2006 (from a high of 81% in May 2006). Also, interestingly, while his approval has begun to level out, it has also started to "smooth" out as well. He retains moderate support in Santa Cruz, but his support in El Alto has declided from the mid-90s to the mid-80s. I'm not sure what that means ... yet. But it's an interesting development.

      Posted by mcentellas November 6, 2007 7:00 PM


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