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  • I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
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Inflation creeping up (again) in Bolivia

November 12, 2007
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Ever since the 1984-1985 hyperinflation (which hit 60,000 percent in its final month), Bolivians have been especially worried about inflation. And except for a spike in 1991 (21.4%), inflation in Bolivia has remained below 20% since 1985. Today’s La Razón has a special section on inflation. So far, it doesn’t look like a major crisis yet, but food prices are creeping up (particularly in La Paz-El Alto). As La Razón points out, inflation is a “tax” on poor people (though clearly the most affected are the lower middle classes & micro entrepreneurs).

According to government sources, at 9.68% Bolivia’s inflation ranks second in Latin America (behind Venezuela, which has hit 13.6%). That essentially outstrips GDP growth (estimated at about 4%). In terms of comparison: in 2007, prices in Bolivia have increased about as much as in 2003, when October protests drove the consumer price index for the year to 11.34%.

A major factor, of course, is the declining dollar. This has made the Boliviano stronger, which cuts into exports. According to reports, Bolivian exporters are losing roughly $72 million. Other problems include ecological disasters, principally due to flooding, which destroyed large portions of Santa Cruz rice harvests & killed cattle in the Beni.

Overall, this is putting tremendous financial strain on the Bolivian state (government expenditures account for a third of GDP). Evo has announced a Stabilization & Development Fund (FED), reminiscent of the 1980s. The fund will divert government gas revenue into development sectors. Meanwhile, the Central Bank has taken $903.4 million out of circulation, as a preventative measure.

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Comments

I'll be the first to admit that I could use a course or two on economics, but to be honest, it seems to me that inflation is long overdue here.

In early 2005 gasoline cost 3.74 Bs per liter... at every single gas station in the country. Today Gasoline costs 3.74 Bs per liter. When the Boliviano was at 8 to the dollar, that came out to about $1.77. Even with the weaker dollar today, it's only $1.84 per gallon. (Diesel is about $1.83) When Carlos Mesa reduced subsidies on diesel and gasoline three years ago, (thereby increasing the cost at the pump), the place went ballistic. [He originally increased diesel by 23% to 3.98 Bs/liter but ended up reducing that to only a 15% increase after mayhem broke loose.]

Meanwhile, in August 2002 the "World price" of crude oil was around $25 per barrel. When Mesa reduced subsidies in December of 2004, it was around $42 per barrel. Today it's $96 per barrel. And yet I pay the exact same cab fare today to get to work as I did 5 years ago. It seems to me that inflation, and more importantly pay raises, may be overdue here.

Posted by Norman November 13, 2007 12:00 AM

    The inflation problem in Bolivia is a problem of expectations and lack of credibility in the authorities. Did you see the film: Where is the pilot? I ask the same question: Where is the President of the Central Bank? A long time ago we lost the pilot of the country: Evo Morales, because I do not know who governs Bolivia: Chavez, Linera, Quintana?
    Anyway, the situation is becoming critical.

    Posted by Carlos Gustavo Machicado November 13, 2007 2:03 PM

      Carlos:

      Si. Yo me pregunto lo mismo: ¿Donde esta el piloto?

      Posted by mcentellas November 13, 2007 2:56 PM


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