I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
My proposal for the 2008 MPSA (Midwest Political Science Association) conference has just been accepted. Time for my research assistant & I to get cracking on our database project. Here’s the proposal (sorry the abstract is so long):
Clientelistic Networks or Policy Teams?
Bolivian Political Parties
Bolivia’s political system has recently undergone a dramatic transformation. After nearly two decades of political stability—dominated by three “systemic” parties (the MNR, ADN, and MIR)—two presidents were driven out of office by social protests in 2003 and 2005. In January 2006, Evo Morales was sworn in as the country’s first indigenous president and representing a previously “outsider” party (MAS). Since then, observers have focused on a number of social, economic, and political changes underway in the country. One of these is the apparent collapse of the previously existing political party system (the constellation of existing parties in a political system). But have the political parties really collapsed? Where did those politicians go? What is the nature and origin of the new, evolving party system today? This paper seeks to answer such questions by following the career paths of Bolivian politicians from the 1980s through the present. Using an original database of party personnel, this paper traces the continued trajectory of political figures as they transitioned from a multiparty system to a two-party dominant system (MAS and PODEMOS) paying careful attention to the “migratory” patterns of politicians as they defect from one party to another between elections throughout a two-decade period. Additionally, I employ two key variables: the degree of migration or defection and party ideological orientation (using a simple right-left distinction). The purpose is to understand whether the recent political shift is best explained by clientelism (virtually no logic to migratory patterns) or by shifting polity teams (migratory patterns within ideological constraints). Understanding this difference will inform us whether Bolivia’s party system has collapsed, realigned (from a multiparty to two-party system), or if there was never an institutionalized party system.
In part, I'm not just interested in who wins. I'm looking at the entire candidate lists, to see who these people are and where they came from. My biggest interest is MNR & PODEMOS lists. PODEMOS is new, but who are the individuals on the list? And w/ MNR: What number of MNR members stayed w/ the party after 2003, and how many left?
Finally, I'm also going to look at municipal lists. Many of the MAS candidates may be "new" ... but they must have been doing "something" prior to 2005.
Interesting concept. This could be applied just as well to Ecuador, where we're seeing similar rearrangement of the political landscape, with the collapse of the traditional power parties, and their replacement with one central power group (Aliaza Pais/Acuerdo Pais) and several small new political parties (so named; I'd actually call them "groups" they're most so small), plus the remnants of old-line traditional parties.
Still, the central questions of your proposed paper apply: Where have all the old guys gone, or all they still around, simply reinventing themselves in order to stay in the game? And what about the new guys, especially the players in Alianza Pais? Gad, if I wasn't running businesses, I'd take a shot at these questions here.....
