A recent poll by Equipos Mori shows the pro-autonomy position gaining ground from July 2006 to today. The poll suggests that “Yes” would win in a new referendum on autonomy in 6 of 9 departments (in a 50/42 split).
The results show significant gains across the board. In today’s poll, 83% of Santa Cruz respondents want autonomy, compared to 71% in the July election (when earlier polls gave it 69%). According to the poll, if the election were held today, only in La Paz & Oruro would the “No” vote win (by 70% in each). In Potosí, the issue is murky, w/ 40% opposed to autonomy & 37% in favor (a statistical tie). In the four departments currently declaring their own autonomy, the move is favored by at least two thirds of the population. It may be that “elites” dominate the Comité Cívico pro Santa Cruz, but I don’t think 83% of Santa Cruz residents are all “elites.”
The other part of the poll is interesting: The vast majority of respondents disapprove of the Constituent Assembly. Even in La Paz, 53% are unsatisfied w/ only 32% satisfied. The two interesting anomalies are Oruro (pro-MAS) & Beni (anti-MAS), where “Don’t Know/No Response” won (51% Oruro, 82% Beni). In short, the poll suggests that popular support of any new constitution probably won’t stem from approval of the Assembly or its process (which means that it will probably be based on personal approval of Evo).
Otherwise, things remain tense but stable in Bolivia.
