A number of Bolivian poll numbers in La Razón today:
Evo’s approval is up three points (from 52% to 55%). But the breakdowns suggest continued polarization. His numbers are 92% (El Alto), 78% (city of La Paz), 49% (city of Cochabamba), 20% (city of Santa Cruz).
In a graphic that shows approval of various prefects, approval for the La Paz prefect (José Luis Paredes, PODEMOS) varies between 62% (city of La Paz) & 48% (El Alto). The Cochabamba prefect (Manfred Reyes Villa, AUN [a PODEMOS ally]) stands at 48% (city of Cochabamba). The most popular prefect is Ruben Costas (APB, a PODEMOS ally) w/ 80% popular approval (in the city).
Another poll shows that voters may reject the new constitution (CPE). Looking again at the four major cities (which hold more than half of the country’s population), the numbers vary significantly by region. In city of Santa Cruz, 68% would reject the new CPE. In contrast, 62% of El Alto residents would approve the new CPE—and 51% in city of La Paz. The other interesting figure comes for responses to the question “Have you read much/some/nothing about the new constitutional text?” 69% of El Alto respondents claim to have read “nothing” about the new CPE, in contrast to 56% in cities of Santa Cruz & Cochabamba.
These polls were conducted by Ipsos Apoyo Opinion y Mercado, which are also carried by Angus Reid.
Meanwhile, during a series of conferences in the Chapare attended by Evo, the cocaleros have announced the formation of new “Ponchos Verdes” youth groups (after the Altiplano’s “Ponchos Rojos”). According to spokespersons, their task is to seek a “Yes” vote for the new CPE in Santa Cruz through either peaceful or (if necessary) violent means. Basically, it seems 2008 will be as rough & tumble as 2007.
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A note about Bolivian polls: Critics of polls often point out that they sample urban, rather than rural respondents. This, of course, means that if there’s a discrepancy between rural & urban respondents, there is “systemic bias” in the data. But one should note that the sample includes the city of El Alto, which tends to be more in line w/ rural Andean voters (often, even more radical than rural Andean voters). Additionally, the samples wouldn’t show a different between regional rural voters (e.g. rural voters in Beni are more likely to vote for the MNR than either for PODEMOS or MAS!). Bottom line: the four-city sample is fairly representative. But the most important thing to note is not the actual numbers, but their trajectory over time. Are they rising? Falling? Leveling out? What’s important is not what Evo’s numbers are today, but what they are relative to three, six, nine months ago. Here’s Evo’s numbers from Jan ’07 to Sept ’08. They suggest that Evo’s approval has leveled out at its election figure (mid-50s percentile), but w/ more of that support disproportionately coming from La Paz-El Alto.
