I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
I believe a compromise could’ve been reached. And while there’s little structurally wrong w/ the new document, many of its provisions are impractical. But. More importantly, the process fell apart months ago. Evo’s insistence that a new constitution arrive by end of the December—and the opposition’s stubbornness—has made the new constitution a dead letter. In the end, it was not drafted through broad consensus (which means both sides give up something) or though procedures that respected the rights of minorities (even oligarchic minorities, as many of the pro-MAS claim). That means that a large number of people will regard the new constitution as illegitimate. And since this is already the 19th constitution in less than 200 years (for an average lifespan of about 10 years), I doubt it will last long.
Miguel: I'm going to Bolivia next week. When do you foresee the you know what hitting the fan?
Posted by
galloglass
December 9, 2007 10:49 AM
Miguel,
I'm not sure the phrase "last long" even applies. Sounds like the thing is DOA...
Question I have now is what are the next moves from the media luna area? I can only imagine that their response would be, "Hey, that's YOUR constitution, buddy, not mine." After that, I should think that things will (continue to) go down hill.....
Tambopaxi: Well, the Media Luna departments are planning on declaring de facto autonomy on the 14th. Looks like we have two trains barrelling towards each other.
Posted by
galloglass
December 9, 2007 12:31 PM
Happened on this blog by accident and glad I did. Enjoyed this blog. Very informative and the conclusions are right. The Brazilians will be pleased. I have quoted portions of this blog entry in a short analysis of the indigenous rights sections of the proposed constitution. http://lcbackerblog.blogspot.com/2007/12/democracy-part-vii.html
galloglas,
I live in Santa Cruz. Rumors only at this point. Latest I heard is not to expect anything before Christmas, but that January could be bad. Civil unrest in Bolivia appears to be seasonal. No messing with Christmas, Carnaval, or Easter. September is usually offlimits too for the international trade fair in Santa Cruz. That leaves the pre-Christmas uprisings, pre-Carnaval, etc. The pre-Christmas protest season appears to be closing. Might be why Morales picked the time-frame. Should have more news Monday as to any unrest. Where are you visiting in Bolivia?
Posted by
norman
December 9, 2007 8:07 PM
Some counter-points to my above post. Civic leaders from five departments have called the CPE illegitimate. Right now there are hunger strikes throughout the country to protest the CPE and civic organizations taking over government posts. In Tarija they are occupying government buildings until the 15th after which they will declare temselves autonomous (whatever they mean by that). Amusingly, I was driving out of town to the north today and the toll booths had been taken over. Folks with Santa Cruz flags were waving everyone through without paying the toll. That might get Evo's attention.
Posted by
norman
December 9, 2007 8:18 PM
Luckily Carnaval is early this year, so January's protest season will be cut short.
Posted by
Frank IBC
December 9, 2007 9:52 PM
I've been trying to explain the situation to my friends here in the USA, and I realized I don't have a really good working definition of "civic committee". I have an intuitive understanding of what it is, but I can't really think of any equivalent in the USA.
Posted by
Frank IBC
December 9, 2007 9:56 PM
I'll be visiting the Autonomous Republic of Santa Cruz. :P (tongue in cheek)
