I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
As expected, the new Bolivian constitution has been approved (w/ some minor changes) yesterday evening. La Razón has a special supplement on the new constitution. Meanwhile, civic leaders in Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, Tarija, and Cochabamba are calling for autonomy by December 15 (though “autonomy” is not the same as “independence”). Of course, the new constitution includes 30 articles detailing departmental autonomy (including formation of regional assemblies), so this may be unnecessary.
Some of the details coming out are interesting. Such as changes to the legislature, which is still bicameral. The House of Deputies is now reduced to 121 (from 130) members, all of which will be elected in “uninominal” districts by “relative majority” (first-past-the-post?). The Senate is now increased to 36 (from 27) members, four from each department using a proportional representation system (not sure how that’ll work w/ a district magnitude of four). There’s now also a “fourth branch” of government—the Plurinational Electoral Council—which seems to elevate the National Electoral Court to higher status.
---- PS. I forgot to mention changes to presidential election. Rather than the previous practice of congressional election in cases when no president wins a simple majority of the popular vote, the new constitution adopts a two-round system (TRS). I posted some thoughts on TRS earlier (this later version was published in Tiempo Político). I also have concerns w/ the use of plurality elections for the legistlature; here are my thoughts on that.
PPS. Some additional commentary is available from MABB. Also, Law at the End of the Day has some interesting commentary on the language of the constitution & its relationship w/ the “fetish objects” of democracy. John Crabtree comments at openDemocracy.
Miguel: I'm not sure I understand you when you say: "Meanwhile, civic leaders in Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, Tarija, and Cochabamba are calling for autonomy by December 15 (though “autonomy” is not the same as “independence”). Of course, the new constitution includes 30 articles detailing departmental autonomy (including formation of regional assemblies), so this may be unnecessary."
Do you really think that the atomized, emasculated, and disparate autonomies found the MAS CPE will give the departments any reason for comfort? Meanwhile, Evo is looking to use the "dedazo" to appoint prefects.
Posted by
galloglass
December 10, 2007 12:44 PM
Galloglass: I've no doubt that many of the CPE articles were meant as compromises towards the media luna. But by imposing them, rather than negotiating them, it's going to be difficult to convince civic leaders of that. Also, the CPE is so convoluted & full of bizarre (and perhaps meaningless) phrases, it's also unclear what autonomy means in the CPE. It's actually amazing how a document so long & detailed (it includes Bolivia's "irrevocable" right to the sea) can be so obtuse when it comes to the actual issues of constitutional design.
Any prognostications on the media luna's counterproposal or autonomy statutes? Something along Spanish or possibly American federalist lines?
Posted by
galloglass
December 10, 2007 12:57 PM
The Spanish autonomy statutes (such as for Catalonia) have been popular in Bolivia for some time. Spanish constitutional experts spoke at a conference I attended in April 2004 in La Paz. In particular, the Tarija civic committees have spent much time studying the Spanish example. So I think that's the direction they're aiming for, not US-style federalism.
The question now is: What could be the best strategy ? To reject the new constitution, or to vote in the referendum for the NO? My perception is that in the cities the MAS has lost a lot of approval, and taking into account that the main population is concentrated in the cities, probably the NO would win. What do you think?
If this is allowed to go to a referendum, there is no way on this green earth that it will lose. Morales did not let the Ley Convocatoria impede him. What makes you think he will elt anything else? If it even remotely looks like the NO could win, he will undermine the process again. "To guarantee the constitutional process, all voting will be monitored. Those voting yes will receive a complementary whipala. Those voting no will receive a complementary whipping. Poncho Rojos will now escort you to the poll."
Posted by
Norman
December 10, 2007 6:29 PM
BTW, so far I've seen a lot that I actually like in this constitution; two terms and only two terms for the president (and legislators) as well as doing away with parliamentary immunity! On the other hand, don't worry about your kids' indoctrina... er... education; Evo has it covered.
