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  • I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
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Support for Evo falls 10 points

December 5, 2007
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Angus Reid’s Global Monitor just released the latest poll for Bolivia. Evo is down 10 points from last month (from 62 to 52 percent approval). I don’t know how this breaks down across the country (the pollsters interviewed residents of La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba, and Santa Cruz, the four major cities). But the figures are consistent w/ what one would expect after the tumultuous past weeks.

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PS. Somehow I missed this, which came out in La Razón a few days ago. But here are the breakdowns (the Angus Reid and La Razón figures both come from the polling firm Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado): Support for Evo is at 23% in Santa Cruz, 50% in Cochabamba, 72% in La Paz, and 82% in El Alto.

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Comments

If the pollsters only polled residents of the city of Cochabamba, then the results are skewed. The urban residents are anti-Evo; it is the campesinos of the department of Cochabamba who support Evo and are against Manfred.

Posted by Jim December 6, 2007 10:48 PM

    Clearly. But let's not assume that rural (or urban) voters are a homogenous, steadfast mass. Chapare coca growers are Evo's strongest supporters in the area, of course. But I'm a little skeptical of assuming that all Cochabamba rural voters are just like the cocaleros.

    Posted by mcentellas December 7, 2007 9:22 AM

      While there may be problems w/ the sampling in the Angus Reid polls, complaints about sampling miss the point. Angus Reid has published polls of support for Evo's government since January 2006 (all by the company Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado). All the samples have used the same methodology & looked at the same people (respondents in the cities of La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba, and Santa Cruz). Yet, in the last 18 months, Evo's numbers have fluctuated tremendously, from a high of 81% in May 2006 to a low of 50% in October 2006. What is important is not the specific number at which Evo polls each month, but rather how that number stands relative to previous months. Thus, a ten point drop in 30 days is significant. He has lost, rather than gained, support.

      Posted by mcentellas December 7, 2007 9:32 AM


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