Yesterday evening, Óscar Ortiz (PODEMOS) was elected the new Senate President. The position also makes him third in line of succession; he would become interim president if Evo & Alvaro García Linera were both absent from the country (they both frequently travel).
After what I think were some serious missteps by Evo’s government, particularly starting in November, the opposition has been gaining an upper hand.
The government’s rush to draft a new constitution led it to inflexibility, which led to violence in Sucre (leaving four dead). The fault may not lie entirely w/ the government, of course. But, like Goni’s government in 2003, when protesters confronting police forces result in deaths, the incumbent government must bear at least some responsibility.
After the dust settled in Sucre, MAS had lost the prefecture of Chuquisaca (Sucre is the capital of the Chuquisaca department). The MAS prefect broke ranks, then stepped down as the city went into general rebellion against the central government. For now, it seems that Chuquisaca has joined Tarija, Santa Cruz, Beni, and Pando as part of the media luna. W/ MAS controlling only two of the remaining prefectures (Oruro & Potosí), the balance isn’t in the government’s favor—especially now that the government is meeting w/ prefects to hammer out a solution to the political crisis (7 of 9 prefects oppose Evo’s government).
The naming of Ortíz to head the Senate is another blow. Because of how the Bolivian senate is apportioned (three seats per department), the opposition-dominated departments are over-represented. Though Evo won 53.7% in the December 2005 elections, his party only won 12 (of 27) seats in the Senates; the opposition PODEMOS won 13, w/ the MNR & Unidad Nacional (UN) taking a seat each.
During the first year, MAS held the presidencies of both the House of Deputies (where MAS delegates hold a majority) as well as the Senate (w/ the support of the MNR & UN). Last session, the Senate presidency went to UN’s José Villavicencio (supported by PODEMOS & MNR).
But Ortíz wasn’t elected simply by a defection of the government’s non-MAS allies in the Senate (after all, PODEMOS only needed either the MNR or the UN senator to defect). Two MAS senators also broke ranks, voting for an alternate candidate (Guido Guardia). The result was a 15-10-2 vote split (the “official” MAS candidate was Antonio Paredo). According to news reports, MAS supporters assaulted Guardia after leaving the chamber, because of his vote (ironically, the two votes for his candidacy didn’t make any difference, since 15-12 is still a win for PODEMOS).
Ortiz was first elected a deputy from Santa Cruz in 2002, when he ran on the NFR candidate list. He ran as the first Santa Cruz senate candidate for PODEMOS (which includes most “traditional” parties, w/ the exception of the MNR) in 2005.
