Things in Bolivia have become increasingly tense in the last few weeks. We’re now about five weeks away from the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum (set for Sunday, May 4th).
The National Electoral Court (CNE) hasn’t sanctioned the election. But the Santa Cruz departmental court (CDE-Santa Cruz) has. Similar referendum elections are moving forward in Tarija, Beni, and Pando. Meanwhile, the conflict over naming a new prefect for Chuquisaca (of which Sucre is the capital) continues.
Additionally, the central government has refused to provide police protection for the referendum, considering it illegal. Evo’s government is also encouraging sympathetic social movements to disrupt—or even prevent—the election from taking place at all. In response, Santa Cruz regional leaders are mobilizing their own counter-movements. In place of police protection, they’re recruiting “civil brigades”—mostly drawn from groups like the UJC (Unión Juvenil Cruceñista). It’s a recipe for disaster.
Already, international actors have begun declaring their positions. The European Union made it clear on Friday that it won’t recognize the Santa Cruz referendum results, nor will it send observers, in the face of central government opposition. And although the cases are not similar, comparisons to the EU position on Kosovo have been made. But it’s clear that Evo’s government hopes to cut Santa Cruz regional leaders off at the pass, by preventing them from appealing to international support for their referendum initiative.
The next several weeks will, of course, be critical. A number of other parties are making various suggestions. ADN leaders are calling for a new constituent assembly election. Doria Medina’s National Unity Front is calling for early elections, if Evo can’t end the political crisis. All the while, inflation is creeping up (alongside other economic woes), there’s a protest demanding “real nationalization” in Camiri (which was attacked by the police military), among other issues.
