Shades of “Black February”

In February 2003, a mutiny by elite riot control police in La Paz turned into a shooting match with the army, after a standoff in front of the presidential palace (see archived posts here, here, and here). The so-called “Black February” served as a critical warning to the six-month-old Goni presidency. By October (only eight months later), weeks of public unrest led to his downfall.

Now, Evo faces a police mutiny of his own. The cause is principally the same as in February 2003: demands for higher pay & benefits. As in 2003, the Bolivian state wants a limited pay raise (this time offering 7%).

Though there’s been no shooting, this is a crucial test for Evo’s presidency. Until now, he has counted on the nearly unconditional support from the country’s security forces, particularly the police. The loss of organizational cohesion—and willingness to back the regime—among the national police comes at a critical moment as four of the country’s nine departments prepare to disregard the central government to move forward w/ their own regional referendums & as Chuquisaca prepares to elect a new prefect.