Boz has an interesting thread on “who wins?” in a possible Venezuela-Colombia war. There is no reason (yet) to believe a war is imminent, of course. But the possibility of inter-state warfare in Latin America shouldn’t bee too hastily dismissed.
Latin American leaders have gone to war w/ their neighbors for various reasons across the region’s history. Including some recent history:
In 1995, Peru and Ecuador fought a brief war over a territorial dispute. There was a smaller-scale incident in 1981, and a full-scale war in 1941.
In 1982, Argentina’s military dictators invaded the British-held Falkland Islands in a gambit to raise their popularity. Instead, the regime fell after a sound beating by a major international power.
In 1969, Honduras and El Salvador fought a brief war over disputed territory (known popularly as the “football war”).
The number of wars exponentially increases once we move further back from the post-war era (and it increases further if we include civil wars, of course).
So while a war between Venezuela & Colombia isn’t highly probable, it’s certainly not impossible. There are longstanding, historical tensions between the two countries that could be exploited. Certainly, Chávez has been exploiting—and stoking—anti-Colombian (and anti-Uribe) sentiment for some time (including the accusation that Simón Bolívar was poisoned by Colombians, ignoring that Bolívar was at the time exiled by the Venezuelan government of Paez). There are certainly domestic reasons for both Chávez & Uribe to seek war (rally-’round-the-flag effect). And this could be seen as proxy war between the US & Chávez.
Of course, it seems odd that Venezuela’s Chávez was (at first) more agitated about the Colombian action into Ecuador than Ecuador’s Correa was (though that quickly changed). But the relationship between Chávez & the FARC has been an odd, complicated, never-fully-understood relationship from the start. Is Chávez showing his “true” support for the FARC? Is he merely standing on principle (though many Bolivians may wonder why there are Venezuelan troops in their country)? Is he merely exploiting the situation to further attack Colombia’s Uribe? It’s all very unclear.
But a mix of volatile leadership, lots of guns, and some hot tempers, gives a recipe for disaster.
