The problems stemming from Colombia’s incursion into Ecuador a few days ago (when Colombian armed forces killed a leading FARC rebel leader) continue. Much of the problem stems from two counts:
1) Escalating rhetoric among all parties concerned (Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia)—and particularly w/ Venezuela’s saber rattling (a full-scale mobilization of land, sea, and air forces as of yesterday).
2) The release of alleged (still lacking independent confirmation) ties between the FARC & other governments (particularly, the claim that Chávez gave FARC leaders $300 million).
A new wrinkle now expands this regional conflict. Today’s La Razón relays allegations that the FARC was set to meet Evo in a summit of “friendly” state leaders (including Venezuela’s Chávez & Ecuador’s Correa) to coordinate strategy. Buried near the end of the story, is a related incident: Peruvian authorities recently arrested Peruvian members of the Bolivarian Continental Coordination that left Ecuador, entered Bolivia, where they (again, allegedly) received guerrilla training.
The bulk of the story suggests a nexus of “revolutionary” activity between Chávez, the FARC, Correa, and Evo. In many ways, the accusation sounds outlandish & is perhaps little more than muckraking or “yellow” journalism. It’s denied by the Bolivian foreign minister. But Chávez’s reaction to Colombia’s incursion into Ecuador begs the question. As does the reality that the FARC has “sanctuary” bases in both Ecuador & Venezuela.
The OAS will, no doubt, have a difficult time dealing w/ this. The US won’t be seen as credible, since it has an axe to grind against Chávez, Correa, and Evo. But Argentina, Brazil, and Chile probably have little interest in appearing weak on insurgent activity, especially if such activity may bring political & economic instability to the region.
Interestingly, I think the winner of all this is actually going to be Lula. He will likely be able to maneuver Brazil into a powerful role as mediator. Who knows, he might even win a Nobel peace prize. The long term consequences will be a rise in Brazil’s role as regional hegemon & political guarantor. Ironically, a role Chávez once fancied for himself.