Boz beat me to the latest poll numbers out of Bolivia: Evo retains 54% public approval (down from 56% in March) across Bolivia, according to the latest poll.
The regional breakdown is again interesting. Evo’s approval is 85% in El Alto, 75% in the city of La Paz, 48% in the city of Cochabamba, and 25% in the city of Santa Cruz. As usual, the Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado polls sample only urban residents. So caveats must be made: Evo’s support is (probably) higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Though these four urban spaces include nearly two thirds of the entire country’s population.
Nevertheless, the most important thing about public approval polls is not the number itself—but rather their trajectory. Since taking office, Evo’s approval has steadily declined to hover in the mid-50s range. Additionally, the regional polarization has sharpened. More interestingly, Evo’s approval in Cochabamba has dipped below 50% recently, which puts the department at risk of moving into the regionalist opposition (which now includes the departments of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca). Most surprising, however, is that Evo’s approval in El Alto is also starting to erode (his numbers there were regularly in the 90s), though his still-high approval there means that the El Alto street is still his strongest constituency (of the urban ones).
The polls also included figures for the vice president, Alvaro García Linera. He currently stands at 47% nationwide approval, w/ 76% in El Alto, 68% in La Paz, 41% in Cochabamba, and 20% in Santa Cruz. Approval for the government now stands at 48%, a steady decline from 54% in January.
One final note should be made about public approval figures: They should not be confused w/ intention to vote for or against incumbents. In many cases, voters may give incumbents low approval ratings, but vote for them again—depending on the alternatives & circumstances. Other times, voters may give incumbents high approval ratings, but them vote for rivals—again, depending on alternatives & circumstances.
In other polling news: Mercado, Opinión y Mercado also released a poll of support for the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum (still going forward May 4). 74% of Santa Cruz residents favor the new referendum statute, 13% are opposed, and 13% aren’t sure. The pollsters included autonomy referendum questions in their other samples. Again, we see regional polarization: only 27% of La Paz & El Alto residents would vote for regional autonomy, while 44% of those in Cochabamba said they would. More and more the country is dividing too neatly into “occidente” (Andean highlands) & “media luna” (eastern lowlands), w/ Cochabamba becoming the balance point. Where Cochabamba ends up tipping towards will likely decide everything.
