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Evo under seige

April 15, 2008
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There have been calls in the past for Evo to step down, but now they’ve become more commonplace.

Yesterday, Ruben Ardaya (the Tarija prefecture’s Secretary of Planning) suggested in a radio interview that a solution to the country’s political & economic crisis was for a new presidential election. Though he also suggested that Evo could run for reelection, in that instance. Members of the opposition also back such a call.

Ardaya’s stance is interesting. Ardaya is a Bolivian social scientist specializing in municipal decentralization & popular participation reforms. He was a member of the original National Secretariat of Popular Participation (SNPP), along w/ José Luis Exeni (now Evo’s appointee to the National Electoral Court) & Carlos Hugo Molina (now also in the opposition). One by one, the veterans of the early 1990s “Popular Participation” reforms seem to be drifting apart, as the country’s new polarization extends even to them.

But an early election in Bolivia wouldn’t be unprecedented. In 1984, Siles Zuazo called early elections (for 1985), ending his term of office early.1 The move was long hailed as a definitive moment in the country’s democratic transition. Siles Zuazo was barred from running in the 1985 general election, however. The winner was Paz Estenssoro.

An early election would also fit a broad definition of “popular democracy” (the kind of democracy Evo’s supporters argue for). Additionally, the 2004 Constitution specifically allows for referendums and recall elections.2 Thus, it’s difficult to argue that a recall vote on Evo—especially one in which he could stand for reelection—isn’t a “democratic” compromise. If Evo retains popular support, he should win reelection. If Evo can’t win reelection, it means there’s no popular mandate for his government.

Increasingly, Evo’s government is finding it harder to defend its actions on liberal or procedural democratic principles. That disjuncture is losing him support among the middle classes & the intelligentsia (w/ the notable exception of some true ideologues). I don’t yet understand why Evo—who has shown himself to be a crafty political actor in his cocalero leader days—seems determined to paint himself into a corner.

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1 Though Siles Zuazo ran for the presidency in 1980, he was elected by the parliament (under Bolivia’s “parliamentarized” presidential system) in 1982. He was due to step down in 1986.
2 The substantial reforms to the constitution made by the legislature in 2004 were hailed as a “new” constitution. For a short description of its changes, relative to the 1995 Constitution, see: http://www.centellas.org/miguel/archives/000679.html

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Comments

But why would Evo do this? What would he gain? Wouldn't it be a betrayal of his supporters? I could see that he might negotiate an early election or resignation if he was offered something great for his side. But how likely is that? But even then, it would be asking a lot to sacrifice himself (and first indigenous president and all).

The last poll I saw, about a month ago, showed Evo's approval still at about 53% in the 3 big cities (4 if you count El Alto separately). With all the talk, this surprised me. Would you resign if you had 53% approval?

Posted by John April 15, 2008 5:10 PM

    56%. Would you resign with 56%?

    http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/30329/morales_retains_popularity_in_bolivia

    See also

    http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/30350/bolivians_split_on_adoption_of_new_constitution

    Posted by John April 15, 2008 5:15 PM

      Miguel, wasn't the whole original idea to hold the referendum on the constitution, the landholding limits, and recall elections for both the president and all the prefects? Remember the whole "is the cutoff 50% or more than the 53% he won in 2005" debate? Obviously those plans got derailed but that really wasn't very long ago and seems plainly relevant here.

      "Evo’s government is finding it harder to defend its actions on liberal or procedural democratic principles"

      I'm not totally sure what you're referring to here. Obviously there's the farce of the constitutional approval, but the way you say it makes it sound like there's some sort of wave of oppression that has continued since then. There is no question that the MAS has blundered many times and lost middle-class support, but Evo seems to be handling himself just fine in some respects. The near-unanimous support from foreign governments over the last few months, just to name one indicator, does not square with your phrase. And what of the opposition, which hasn't made a real concession on anything substantive at any point in the last 18 months?

      Posted by jd April 15, 2008 5:53 PM

        Actually, this could possibly the best time for Morales to call for such a move. Apart from his declining support from the middle class (as well as other sectors), Bolivia is seeing double digit inflation which is predicted to continue for at least the next two years. Unless something changes, Morales can look forward to declining support in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the opposition still hasn't come up with a unified front. It's unlikely that they would suddenly rally behind a single opposition candidate. If Morales could renew his mandate now, it would seriously hinder any later attempt to remove him when his popularity really begins to slip.

        Posted by norman0361 April 15, 2008 6:48 PM

          If Evo has 53% approval, why not go forward w/ a recall? Wouldn't he expect to win?

          Though note that his approval at 53% is lower than it was when he entered office. His approval hit its high point in the low-90s several months back. So perhaps "job approval" doesn't translate into "will vote for again"?

          Posted by mcentellas April 15, 2008 9:11 PM

            Well an important aspect of any new round of re-election who else would run that would gain braod support. I can think of no one. A return to a divided country with myriad political parties might favor autonomy movements, it would not necessarily help the development of more egalitarian state. A priority which is absent in the discourse of the media luna. While relentless turnover in the political leadership since independence might indicate that it will continue into the future with Evo, that does not necessarily make it a good thing. Part of the problem, and I would argue a cause of the pernicious corruption in Bolivia, is that leaders are aware that there time in office power might very well be short-lived. This turnover results in erradict national policies that vacilate and impede the benefits of long term consistent investment. Also what is gained in enthusiasm with new leadership is lost in experience. Evo needs to back off the rhetoric, stop falling for the confrontational tricks of the traditional neoliberal parties in the east, and find a way to demonstrate that he is a president for more than just the indigenous people.

            Posted by Miguel de los Shanqueros April 17, 2008 2:58 PM


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