I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
As expected, Savina Cuéllar won the race for Chuquisaca prefect by a comfortable margin over the MAS candidate (57.3 to 39.4 percent). Although these are unofficial “quick” counts, they’re not expected to change much. (Official results from the National Electoral Court, w/ only about half of the vote counted, so far gives Cuéllar almost 75 percent of the vote.)
Bolivia’s first elected female prefect, Cuéllar is a native Quechua speaker & former regional secretary for the Bartolina Sisa Campesina Women’s Federation (FMCBS). She was also active in the resistance against the 1980-1981 Garcia Meza dictatorship. She had been, until recently, a supporter of Evo Morales.
The victory by the Interinstitutional Committee Alliance (ACI) candidate moves the Chuquisaca regional government into the opposition (leaving pro-MAS prefects in only Oruro & Potosí), and raises the question of Chuquisaca’s stance on regional autonomy.
The Morales government has been incredibly inept in his dealings with Chuquisaca. They lost this department that was solid Evo territory before the Assembly nonsense.
First they underestimated the force of the Interinstitutional Committee Alliance and the "capitality" issue, which lead to the Assembly fiasco. Then they thought they could use the incidents of past May for a smear campaign against Sucre and their civic leaders, labeling them as racist, but this strategy backfired. It is interesting to note that what they have been calling the country's "capital of racism" has elected the first Quechua speaker (and first woman) prefect in history.
Posted by
Jorge
June 30, 2008 12:46 PM
Yes. And she's "de pollera" (ethnic/indigenous dress) as well. It was interesting that her victory speech was given in Quechua, not Spanish.
More & more I'm starting to believe that Evo's government is actually *not* very radical at all. Instead, it seems that the regionalist movements (of various stripes) are more "radical" (in the sense of moving beyond the status quo). Sure, Evo has some leftist/populist economic policies (some of them, like the Juancito Pinto program, are very good). But they're mostly a throwback to the earlier era of Latin American populism (1930s-1950s). Meanwhile, the regionalist movements & various civic groups are pushing for a de facto federalization of Bolivian politics which is remarkably radical.
Miguel - was there much abstention in this vote, as there were in some of the autonomy votes?
Posted by
Frank IBC
July 1, 2008 4:19 PM
Regarding radicalism, let's see how autonomous departments are governed. If the autonomies mean centralization in the 4+ capitals, it will be back to the past.
Do you think Cuéllar will be in a position to bargain between La Paz and the eastern departments?
Posted by
John
July 1, 2008 4:26 PM
Those damn racists in Chuquisaca! They've gone and elected an indigenous person as Prefect--and a woman to boot. They'll stop at nothing I'll tell ya!! It's time to mobilize the anthropologists!!
On a less snarky note, I have been arguing for a long time that Evo is not as radical as he appears. Not to say that some in his government are not radical, but generally speaking, I don't believe Evo has radical instincts. Notwithstanding his anti-American knee-jerk, of course, which I suppose is understandable given his cocalero background.
Posted by
GS
July 1, 2008 10:52 PM
The final results from CDECH (Corte Departamental de Chuquisaca) are in. Cuéllar took 51.585% of the vote. Voter turnout was 76.698%.
Cuéllar got 67% in provincia Oropeza, where Sucre is. In the other provinces, that is Chuquisaca minus Oropeza, she got 25%. She got as low as 11% near the capital (Zuda~nez) and as high as 45% down in the Chaco (Luis Calvo).
MAS support falls with altitude, it appears, but even Luis Calvo goes 52% for MAS.
Posted by
John
July 2, 2008 3:05 PM
Yes, it's pretty clear that MAS can still command a lot of support in the rural regions, especially in the highlands. But Chuquisaca went 54.17% for MAS in the 2005 general elections & 54.4% in the 2006 constituent assembly referendum. So the numbers appear consistent, w/ a shift among middle class Sucre residents large enough to tip the balance.
That seems to be Evo's story these past two years. The rural/indigenous/highland/poor voters that back MAS probably won't vote against MAS (though they could at some point abstain). But the middle class voters that tipped the balance in Evo's favor in 2005 & 2006 are moving towards the opposition. If he couldn't really lose his "base," Evo should've done a better job keeping moderate middle class sectors happy.
Miguel, I was just laying out the data. 67% is impressive. It might be interesting to look at the details within Sucre as well.
Posted by
John
July 2, 2008 4:43 PM
Miguel: Off topic, but are you going to comment on the Unitel bombing? Startling revelations have come out in the past few days as the phone records of Nava have been checked. That morning he was in contact with MAS congressmen and made phone calls to the Palacio Quemado. The Venezuelan Embassy rented the auto used in the bombing. The government denied that he was part of Evo's security, yet pictures have come out of him guarding Evo. From El Mundo: "El jefe de Bancada de Diputados de Podemos, Oscar Antonio Franco expuso en conferencia de prensa que mientras el Ministro de la Presidencia, Juan Ramón Quintana, aseguró que Nava NO formaba parte del cuerpo de edecanes ni del equipo de seguridad del Presidente Evo Morales...el citado oficial cuenta con tal documento que lo acredita como miembro de la Seguridad de la Casa Militar y además formó parte del equipo que protegió al Primer Mandatario durante la toma de Petrobras en el acto de nacionalización de los Hidrocarburos el 1 de Mayo de 2006." Watergate pales in comparison to this.
Posted by
galloglass
July 3, 2008 8:45 AM
I haven't followed up on the Unitel bombing, but I noted it earlier in this post: "Explosion & arrests in Tarija." Yes, it's starting to look more & more like the government was involved (and/or Venezuela!).
