With 10 days before the recall referendum, Evo might be heading into a tight spot. A strike by the COB (the Bolivian workers’ federation) has gained steam, and yesterday miners shut down much of the government in La Paz. The COB objects to Evo’s new pension plan, which doesn’t go as far as they would like (they insist that Evo’s government adopt the COB proposal w/o modifications).
Why might this hurt Evo? Two reasons: First, Bolivian political history has an eerie way of repeating itself. And the COB has a long history of opposing leftist regimes for not being leftist enough, which has invariable led to a political crisis solved by a government of the right. The last time this happened was in 1982-1985, when longstanding COB opposition to the leftist Siles Zuazo government strengthened the right, led to the election of Paz Estenssoro, and the neoliberal “new economic policy” (NEP).
Second, and more specifically, a COB boycott or disruption of the election in places like La Paz & Oruro could drive down votes for Evo. If so, Evo might not get the magical 53.74%. Because of the recall’s rules (though I suspect these may soon change to simply require a simple majority), Evo would keep his seat. But if the rules change, and if the COB disrupts voter turnout in key pro-Evo constituencies, then Evo is in serious trouble.
That’s a lot of “ifs” of course. But it’s clear that Evo is not moving fast/far enough for some on the left. Quispe has already denounced Evo as a traitor to the indigenous movement. The COB seems to be questioning his commitment to the labor movement. In part, this stems from electoral problems: as I’ve pointed out in my upcoming APSA paper, the 2005 MAS electoral list didn’t include figures from the groups most active in the 2003 “Gas War” (it was the COB, then led by Jaime Solares, that brought Goni’s government to its knees). Perhaps these are personal political vendettas?
But Evo’s also being assailed from the right. In Bolivia, however, the right has a long history of coming together in the face of any left-of-center opposition. Unfortunately for Evo, the Bolivian left has a long history of factionalism, and even of splintering apart at crucial moments.
