I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
You’ve gotta at least admire Quispe’s chutzpah. After allegations surfaced recently about ties between FARC, Venezuela, and Quispe’s EGTK guerrilla group, the famous Mallku (“prince”) of the Aymara katarista movement came forward w/ a press statement openly stating that he has FARC sympathies—though pointing out that he also has programmatic differences w/ the Colombian guerrillas.
It also seems that Quispe is about to reenter Bolivian politics—as an opponent of Evo’s government (which he described as worse than Goni’s). Clearly, there is no love lost between Quispe & Alvaro García Linera, his one-time collaborator. He blames AGL (who isn’t “indigenous”) of selling out & splitting the indigenous movement.
This could spell serious trouble for Evo. While Quispe was never a major electoral threat (at its peak, his indigenous party MIP placed fifth in 2002 w/ 6.09% of the vote), he was a major national presence (he coined the term “the two Bolivias”). Quispe was also the driving force behind the so-called “Gas War” in 2003.
What had started as another Quispe-led indigenous blockade of the city of La Paz. It was his supporters who were engaged in the skirmish in Warisata as government security forces tried to rescue nearly a thousand “hostages” (tourists stranded by the blockade, including a number of foreigners). Only after the fallout of that skirmish (which left several dead) did El Alto explode. In a short amount of time, a simultaneous protest by Jaime Solares & the COB (the Bolivian labor federation) that had failed to gain traction provided the slogan: “El gas no se vende!” That soon became the rallying cry for a host of different groups angry at the government for various reasons. The bottom line is this: Solares lacked the capacity to really disrupt politics. After the 1980s, the COB was a pale shadow of its former strength; the pre-Warista daily protests led by Solares in the city numbered only about a hundred or more participants. That number swelled after El Alto residents joined en mass (mostly driven by Roberto De la Cruz, the leader of the regional labor federation, who had sympathies w/ Quispe). In the later part of the October 2003 Gas War, Solares, Quispe, and De la Cruz all vied for control over a social movement. Evo was traveling abroad for much of that period, and was barely involved (in fact, MAS remained on the sidelines until mid-October, though it’s eventual participation in the Gas War was the final straw that broke the back of Goni’s government).
So what could Quispe do to Evo? For all of Evo’s symbolic presence as an “indigenous” leader (he was voted “Appu Mallku” by a pan-Aymara federation shortly after his December 2005 presidential election), he lacks the long trajectory in the katarista movement that Quispe has. Quispe is a bonafide Aymara ethnic leader. In the December 2004 municipal elections, MIP still managed to do well (if not dominate) most of the rural Altiplano—places where even then MAS had a difficult time penetrating. And where the Aymara countryside goes, the city of El Alto is often soon to follow.
In short, Quispe’s very vocal criticism of his government should worry Evo. Quispe is perhaps the one political figure who can steal from Evo the most important part of his constituency: El Alto. Evo has already had problems w/ miners & other sectors. An indigenous blockade of La Paz under his watch would probably destroy his credibility as an “indigenous” president.
Let me push back a little on this one. Quispe has always opposed Evo's government and their mutual dislike goes back, at least, to their leadership struggles over the CSUTCB. Quispe and his party/movement have also always been relatively weak and uninfluential on the national political stage. Their best showing was during the 2002 elections, as yo point out in your previous post, and this was a measily 6% of the electorate. It's been downhill for them since then. Did they even run n the last elections? (I think he did but he placed close to dead last, no?) Except in the hinterlands surrounding Lake Titicaca, Quispe has very little following. Your claim of Quispe's influence over el Alto is also a bit overblown. The demographics in el Alto favor MAS's broader appeal, IMO, which has greatly cut into Quispe's influence there. And to add insult to injury, AGL has "appropriated" the Ponchos Rojos, more of a natural constituency for Quispe than Evo and, particularly, AGL (ethnicity-wise, not history-wise).
I agree that Quispe is more of a true indigenous leader then Evo will ever be, but Quispe's been ranting against Evo's government from the sidelines since Evo won the election. And all he can do is rant. He is but a shadow of what he used to be, and what he used to be was not even Bolivian-national, just Aymara-national. What has changed that makes you think that Quispe suddenly can be a threat to Evo?
Posted by
GS
July 24, 2008 4:31 PM
@GS: Good points. I guess we'll have to wait to see what Quispe's recent reemergence into politics will mean. But I do suspect that his painting himself as a "real" radical may hurt Evo. Remember, Quispe was a force in La Paz politics long before Evo was. Perhaps his star has been eclipsed. But perhaps not.
I'm certainly no expert on Quispe, but given the timing I'm wondering if he's threatening to be a spoiler in the revocatorio.
Posted by
Frank IBC
July 24, 2008 5:35 PM
Felipe Quispe has always been an interesting figure. One major difference with Evo--and probably his greatest weakness--is that he is more ideologically committed.
Evo has been successful in camouflaging behind different banners. One day he decides he'll befriend the U.S.; the next he wants them out. One day he'll negotiate with the autonomous movements; the next he says they're a bunch of phonies.
Let's admit it: such wiggle room works. At least it drives the opposition crazy as they try to figure out what he's really up to. With the exception of staying in power for as long as possible, not even Evo knows what he is up to.
Quispe has kept a more steady course: he hates the Americans, he hates the mestizos, he's all about building an indigenous nation. The question is: how far can you go with such an agenda when most of the indigenous population are nothing but small capitalists trying to secure private ownership of their lands, expand their businesses and send their kids to a good school?
While Quispe's incursion has further stirred the political scenario, I agree with the previous commenter: it's too much buzz and not enough substance. People will still support Evo as long as he tells people what they want to hear. As for Quispe, his open commitment to his revolutionary principles is praiseworthy, but it won't sell.
Posted by
Luis Azurduy
July 24, 2008 6:08 PM
The problem is, in Bolivia, political power is rarely directly tied to levels of popular support. As I noted before, Quispe never won more than 6% of the national vote in 2002. And his party averaged about 20-25% of the vote (at most) in the Altiplano. But he's been able to raise & sustain bloqueos of the city of La Paz.
So there are two great dangers Quispe poses to Evo:
1) He could lead a boycott/blockade of the revocatorio vote that drives down voter turnout (if Evo's supporters can't vote because they can't get to the polls)in exactly the areas were Evo is strong.
2) He could raise a bloqueo that starts a food or fuel shortage in the city (like he did in September 2003). Such a move would hurt poor residents (who live day to day) in El Alto first, which would put pressure on Evo's government to end the bloqueo. But if Evo calls in the army to restore order, he risks falling into the same trap that Goni fell into. If Evo orders troops to put down an Aymara protest by force, it would destroy his government.
So it's not about whether Quispe can become more popular than Evo. Quispe has enough followers to destabilize any government. The unfortunate geography of a capital city surrounded by high mountains w/ only two major roads out has seen to that.
But Quispe's base, the number of followers he has, hasn't grown any. I think that it has even shrunk, with some traitors going to MAS and others going the way of CONAMAQ. So he has less number of followers now. But even if he didn't, even if the number of followers he has remained the same as in 2005, why would he pose a danger to Evo now? What is different about the correlation of power now than last year, or the year before? Quispe's relative power has not improved any, i don't think. If he decides to mount un bloqueo I don't think it would have any effect on Evo because there is no national cause to rally around the same way there was in 2003 and 2005--in fact, with CONOMAQ's semi-alliance with MAS, I would think that a bloqueo would be disasterous for Quispe as it will trully show how marginalized his position has become. Evo doesn't have to use the military against a fringe aymara bloqueo, he can use "social movements" or "ponchos rojos" even (though the latter may be a stretch, but not by too much).
What has changed now to favor Quispe that wasn't there since 2005 when, arguably, Quispe was in a stronger position relative his position now?
BTW, a bloque scenario as described above would be great for the MEdia LUna crowd: Let those Indians kill each other, they would say. Divide and conquer.
Posted by
Anonymous
July 24, 2008 8:12 PM
Anon 8:12
The media luna cliches are tired. Cruceños, Chapacos, Benianos, et.al just want to be left alone. They have no interest in dividing or conquering anything.
Posted by
galloglass
July 25, 2008 10:49 AM
I agree. Not only are such views cliche, they reveal a poor grasp of knowledge of the complexities of Bolivian politics. The political world is not neatly divided into white vs. brown people.
Galloglass, mcentellas: Anon 8:12 is me, I keep hitting "Post" before putting my initials in the Name box.
Point well taken, though I take umbrage at the "poor grasp of knowledge of the complexities of Bolivian politics" bit. My grasp of the complexities of Bolivian politics may not be up to parr with a PhD who studies Bolivian politics professionally or with someone that follows the politics of Bolvia on a daily basis, but I think it is far from "poor." Anyhow, that last line that you guys have rightlty called out, was not my main point. It was a throw-away line that I was typing without really thinking it through, my mind being influenced by some of the crap, literally, that I've seen in my in-box from some of the more rabid members of the anti-Evo crowd. Thanks for setting me straight.
Posted by
GS
July 25, 2008 2:27 PM
@GS: I apologize if I sounded snarky. But, yeah, I come across my fair share of dogmatic rants from both the anti-Evo and the pro-Evo crowd. Often, sadly, they're more interested in supporting their ideological positions (which are often poorly thought out) than in engaging in actual analysis. From my limited experience, that's not the case w/ you, GS. Again, I apologize.
