A recent poll suggests that Evo would survive a recall referendum in Bolivia, w/ 49% in favor of keeping him in office, 18% opposed, and 33% undecided.
Of course, it will all depend on which side turns out more votes (“decisions are made by those who show up”) or is able to prevent votes (“decisions are made by those who can show up”). But even if the 33% undecided broke against Morales, he would remain in office: The current recall law states that those in favor of removing him must surpass 53.74% of the vote (Evo’s margin when elected in December 2005) and 1,544,374 (the actual number of votes Evo won).
Yes, Bolivian polls are often inaccurate. But they’re still useful for understanding trends (at 49%, Evo is down seven points from a month ago). Still, as I’ve argued before (see this earlier post), Evo is probably safe.
Miguel:
Did you see this quote from Evo? He said it Monday in Cochabamba.
“Yo he aprendido que, por encima de lo legal, está lo politico. Por eso, cuando mis asesores me dicen ‘Evo, lo que estás haciendo es ilegal’, yo les digo: ’si es ilegal, háganlo legal. Para eso han estudiado…”
Basically he's saying "l'etat c'est moi".
Yes, true. But he's also making a standard (and universal) lawyer joke.