I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
With the upcoming recall referendum in Bolivia, there’s growing speculation about whether the embattled Evo Morales will hang on to his presidential seat. The following graph might help:
The data for this graph was compiled from polling numbers made publicly available by Angus Reid Global Monitor. The numbers come mostly from Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado, w/ a few from Equipos Mori, Captura Consulting, and one Latinobarómetro/Economist poll of regional leaders. The numbers are vaguely similar, and I’ve added a simple binomial trendline (using the Apoyo numbers).
The December 2005 poll was conducted shortly after Evo won the election, and asked voters whether they expected his administration to be a good one (he wasn’t sworn in until January 22). The other polls are standard job approval ratings.
Overall, the numbers can be interpreted in a few different ways.
Because approval ratings for Evo start higher than his vote share (he won w/ 53.74% of the vote), one possibility is that voters gave him a “honeymoon” period after the election, bumping his numbers up (they reached 81% in May 2006, the month he announced the nationalization of the oil & gas industry). The subsequent drop through mid-2006 (bottoming out at 50% in October) supports this idea of a honeymoon followed by a sharp drop. Since then, Evo recovered until mid-2007, when he entered another (albeit less dramatic) decline. So far in 2008, he’s held stable in the 54-56% range (slightly higher than his December 2005 vote share). If these numbers hold up, he should pass the recall test easily. But it would mean that Evo has neither lost nor gained ground (meaning few in the country have changed their mind, leaving the political scene as polarized as before).
Alternatively, one can try to “read into” the polling data. Each of the Apoyo polls draws samples from the country’s four major urban centers: La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba, and Santa Cruz. On the one hand, the over-representation of urban areas might deflate Evo’s numbers. On the other hand, the over-representation of Andean cities (particularly La Paz & El Alto, which are Evo strongholds) might inflate Evo’s numbers. The Mori & Captura polls also often include other cities, such as Tarija and Sucre. It’s interesting to note that these numbers are often slightly lower (though not by much) than the Apoyo numbers.
There is also an interesting recent poll about a hypothetical new election. In it, Evo would easily defeat a number of challengers—but would only win 38% of the vote (the next runner up, Rubén Costas, got only 11% in the straw poll). Yet, these figures aren’t much different than how Evo polled in the weeks leading up to the December 2005 election (his numbers fluctuated between 30.7% to 34.2% from November through December). Again, this suggests that polls underestimate Evo’s support (particularly in the rural population). Of course, in the straw poll “Not sure” wins 25% of the vote (roughly what it did in the polls leading up to the 2005 election). If we exclude the unsure voters & treat them like blank/null votes, Evo’s current prospects are about 50.7% of the declared vote. If we did the same w/ the December 7-11 poll (in which Evo won 34.2%, but 23.5% of the voters were unsure), Evo would take 44.7%. No mater how you slice it, the pre-electoral polls underrepresented Evo’s support.
The bottom line: It’s going to be a tight race. But it looks like Evo is probably safe. Unfortunately, the election probably won’t alter the political landscape much—if at all. Unless Evo can win more votes than he did in December 2005, the result will verify a highly polarized country. The real interesting issue, will be to compare 2005 and 2008 votes at the disaggregate level. I suspect that Evo has consolidated his base in departments like La Paz & Oruro, while losing ground in places like Tarija & Santa Cruz.
Did you look at the way Evo worded the question on the ballot? Sounds like its a referendum on Evo's constitution from the way its worded. If I remember correctly, Evo wrote it in December, before the constitution looked like such a bad bet.
Do you think that if the opposition presents the recall as a vote for or against the constitution the results would be different?
Now the recall of the prefects sounds like a referendum on their job performance, from the wording.
Doesn't your polling analysis show that the recall likely will not be a tight race, with Evo easily getting between 50-60% approval?
I don't really think Evo is the race to be watching. The Prefect referendums look much more interesting, tight, and unpredictable. La Paz and Cochabamba are almost sure to revoke. My bet is that Pando and Tarija are the real "battleground" departments for the recall.
And yes Aaron, Evo has very explicitly tied voting for him to the constitutional project, attempting to raise the CPE's profile with his personal support. I bet, a move more likely to work than backfire.
Posted by
D.Beaulieu
July 8, 2008 4:41 PM
Meanwhile, the US Congress's approval ratings are in the SINGLE DIGITS.
Posted by
Frank IBC
July 8, 2008 7:10 PM
Interesting graph. I alway, and I have argued it before, am skeptic with AOM's numbers because of what you alluded to. They concentrate on the major cities, as if the countryside would not matter. That is not a representative statistical sample for me. The thinking is just different, even though it might be argued they are the same people.
That's one thing, the other is that I think (well almost sure) that Morales wouldn't get a 54% in a vote again. Many of the urban middle class people who helped to put that number way up, would not vote for him again. I spoke with some of those voters while in Bolivia and they told me they voted for him because they saw no alternative. I would tend to guess that 54% would have dropped to the 40s by now.
Now the question is, why has Morales decided to go ahead with the recall vote? I think, as usual, political calculation. Have you read yesterday's La Razon? Have you seen that report about MAS offices in La Paz issuing id cards? Since more than two years now, the government has been running a program (aided by Venezuelans) to provide everyone in Bolivia with an id card. They have sent people all over the country to do this. Ok, yes, this is necessary, but also dangerous, don't you think? The question is, why is a MAS office issuing id to people? Who is controlling that?
Now, the CNE and some other organization want to proof the electoral register. I am waiting with interest what is the result.
@D.Beaulieu: I still do think it's going to be a tight race, because of how Evo's polling support has slipped in recent months. I think he'll get about 50-55, which is safe, but not a landslide. And I suspect he'll get less support than he did in 2005. I also think the polling data has started to inflate his support. A number of conflicts in Oruro, Potosí, and even Cochabamba & Chuquisaca have (I believe) eroded his support in the Andean countryside. This has been bolstered by his unwavering support in the city of El Alto (where he polls in the high 90s!).
I agree w/ MABB: his middle class support has slipped considerably. And I'm also troubled by the recent allegations that voter rolls in places like El Alto have recently exploded in size. I'm glad Exeni is having the CNE look into that (I didn't doubt that he would). Let's hope it's a clean election.
Guys, I hate to be a pessimist or alarmist, but this election is over and done with. The Padron Electoral has been completed corrupted, Masistas are doling out IDs without the supervision of the police, some have have photos of countrysides, computer cables, Exeni has destroyed the impartiality of the CNE, etc. More worrying are the contents of Nava's flash drives. Powerpoints of Bolivia, showing military installations and profiles of their commanders, all classified according to their revolutionary bonafides or malafides if you will. Photos of homes and family members of civic committee leaders and their schedules. Plans that allude to a possible civil war, instigated by MAS. We can talk about polls, percentages, etc., but the fact of the matter is that Evo, like his friend Hugo, is planning on being president for life.
More info from La Razon:
La memoria digital (flash memory) que portaba el teniente Georges Nava Zurita al momento de ser detenido, luego del atentado a un medio de comunicación en Yacuiba, revela detalles de una supuesta guerra civil en el país y conexiones de “grupos especiales” de la Policía Nacional con la Agencia Antidrogas de Estados Unidos (DEA).
En los archivos de estos programas, a los que tuvo acceso La Razón, aparecen informes donde se hace un recuento de los hechos acaecidos hasta el mes de junio y los supuestos acontecimientos que se desarrollarían en el segundo semestre de este año.
El primer semestre, catalogado como "negociación", involucra al Gobierno y prefectos por la discusión del IDH, a las consultas para la aprobación de los estatutos autonómicos en cuatro regiones del país y al referéndum revocatorio, sucesos que ya se desarrollaron en el país. El cuadro cambia en el segundo semestre, ya que el rótulo es catalogado con el término de "acción". En este escenario se menciona supuestos actos terroristas de organizaciones e instituciones contrarias a la gestión gubernamental que facilitarían los medios materiales y monetarios necesarios para el equipamiento de grupos irregulares en el país. Aparte se menciona paros y bloqueos de caminos que serían ejecutados por movimientos de oposición afines a la “media luna”.
Llama la atención los posibles eventos en el último trimestre de este año. Se indica, por ejemplo, un posible golpe de Estado por parte de algunos militares con el apoyo de la oposición. Esto estaría acompañado de un magnicidio contra el Presidente.
En el mes de diciembre se suscitaría la supuesta guerra civil debido al agitamiento en el occidente del país. "La oposición creará incertidumbre, racismo y confrontación ideológica pretendiendo que en un momento de inflexión donde converjan factores críticos que presionen al sistema político pueda desencadenar en enfrentamientos con pérdidas de vidas humanas", se lee en un párrafo extraído del archivo de la memoria digital que estaba en manos de Nava el día del atentado en Yacuiba.
Posted by
galloglass
July 9, 2008 12:25 PM
But all Evo has to get to win is more than 47% of the vote, so 50-55 would be relatively safe, but election predictions in Bolivia are certainly not an easy business.
Posted by
D.Beaulieu
July 9, 2008 12:40 PM
I'm glad Exeni is having the CNE look into that (I didn't doubt that he would). Let's hope it's a clean election.
If el MAS are fiddling the electoral register, then somebody should give the entire party a copy of Animal Farm.
Posted by
Steve
July 9, 2008 1:23 PM
Galloglass points to some clear problems w/ the electoral rolls (to which I & other have also alluded). I can't speak to the contents of Nava's flash drive, since it's not clear how authentic they are. But it all does point to a troubling trend.
As for polling data and whether the referendum will be close or not. Again, I still believe the vote could be close. Why? While the polls aren't truly representative (they only poll urban areas), they give us some info. First, they give us a downward trajectory. Evo's popularity has declined from his first few months, and become stable. That tells us that urban support for Evo has declined, but stabilized. Second, we have no idea what rural support for Evo is. Has it also declined since early 2006? If so, that's troubling. Has it increased? If so, it must increase in the same proportion as the urban decrease (about 50% of Bolivian voters live in the four urban areas polled) to retain the early 2006 levels. Third, rural voter turnout is historically lower than urban voter turnout. Again, rural support for Evo must not only make up for urban losses, but compensate for lower voter turnout.
Of course, all this depends on a clean election. But as Galloglass points out, that's not entirely clear at this point. But at least CNE & international monitors are looking into the problems w/ the electoral rolls. On the plus side, if the fraud is too blatant, it will be obvious. If so, it will burn Evo more than a narrow victory.
But a narrow victory worries him, too. After all, Evo can survive a recall w/ anything above 46.26%. But anything less than 53.74% will mean a loss of support since December 2005. While he would retain his seat, that would mean a political defeat.
Morales NEEDS to win with at least 75% of the vote. Anything below 54% will be unacceptable, politically. The need of a sweeping win is due to the stalemate Bolivia is currently in. If he doesn't get the absolute majority, he will not be able to change anything, the way he wants to. The situation will still be polarized and as long as the opposition has some strength, he will not be able to go ahead.
Why such an overwhelming support? Morales needs to make some changes. First, he needs to be able to have some control over congress. He needs to appoint the judges in the Judicial system. Someone has to interpret the law, right? Second, he needs the opposition (personified by the Prefects) weakened. If he can reduce the number of Prefects in the opposition, his days will be much easier. Then he would only have to worry about the civic committees, which is easier in a way. Thirdly, he needs his constitution to be approved, so he can implement it. Without legal backing, he has his hands tied.
All these things and some others need an absolute majority kind of support. If he doesn't get to change those things I mentioned above, the situation will hardly change.
but the fact of the matter is that Evo, like his friend Hugo, is planning on being president for life.
You mean Hugo, who put a constitutional referendum to the people, had it rejected and accepted the result? That Hugo? Yeah he's really pulling out all the stops to be elected for life.
Isn't Uribe in Columbia doing the same thing? Selective fact picking to support an ideological argument.
Posted by
Steve
July 10, 2008 4:50 AM
MABB, you are crazy on this one. 75%! Is this based on any kind of political science?
Whatever the outcome, with little else to look forward to except the ability of minorities to block change, there will be still the possibility good-faith negotiations. OK, maybe that's even less realistic than 75%.
Posted by
John
July 10, 2008 4:42 PM
John: Welcome to Latin American politics! No I am not crazy, I was thinking about Morales' own goals for this campaign. And I am being conservative here. The point is, he needs to have an overwhelming majority behind him to enact the changes he wants. Why do you think is taking so long up to now? The opposition controlled Senate blocks his actions. With an overwhelming majority (which is not impossible if you are deciding who gets to vote (I am assuming here you know what is going on with the patron electoral)) he would have the necessary legitimacy to make those changes. More legitimacy to be able to circle the parliament and force the opposition in the Senate to pass his laws.
For one, he would be better off if the courts would be on his side. With pressure he could fill the vacancies in the Constitutional and Supreme courts. In addition, he could appoint more sympathetic people to the Electoral Court (if he hasn't already). These are some of the changes he needs to make if he wants to win this struggle.
In the USA, it is the strategy of setting your opponent's goal high, so they're sure to lose. And setting your own goal low, so you're sure to get over it. It's not honest political talk. (Of course, in Bolivia I guess it applies to actual thresholds for surviving the referendums, not just talk.)
And I'm as aware of the talk of irregularities as you are. I'm guessing there will be intimidation, tricks, and cheating on both sides. I do not believe or disbelieve any of it yet. How much of an effect on net national results do you think it all will have?
But charges of voter fraud are a common way to suppress you opponents' voting in the USA too. They threatened to clean the voter tolls of nonvoters in the referendum in Tarija a few weeks ago. Sounds a lot like Florida 2000.
But if all you are saying is that it's better for a party to get 67% or 75% rather than what they are realistically likely to get, then I could not agree with you more.
Posted by
John
July 11, 2008 3:24 PM
I'm actually not that worried about voter fraud in Bolivia. I trust CNE, despite some of its critics. And voters in Bolivia are asked to dip their finger in permanent ink after they vote. It makes it hard to vote again, since poll workers ask to see hands before voting.
But there are lots of ways to influence voting and outcomes besides double+ voting. One example: among the criticisms of the election for subprefect in Yacuiba was that it would keep people from voting in the Tarija autonomy referendum a week later. It was expected that campo people would not want to make the trip to vote twice in a week. I don't know how great an effect this was or whether it was intended.
Another method I mentioned above was eliminating names from the voter rolls, as well as creating other obstacles to easy voting.
Finally, there is intimidation. I guess I'd add a related one--creating violent incidents expected to be blamed on opponents.
Posted by
John
July 12, 2008 7:44 AM
Those are clearly important points. And I do worry about issues of disenfranchisement. But I'm optimistic (perhaps foolishly so) that the CNE will maintain its professionalism & manage yet another election. It has a good track record of doing so. Already some regional courts are dropping improperly included names (a practice done before every election). So I'm gonna wait & see.
Miguel: If you were here in Santa Cruz, you´d be amazed at the extent to which the padron has been corrupted. Carnets al instante, double carnetization, MAS campaign headquarters giving out carnets, no checking against the civil register, etc. Exeni has already gutted the institutionality of the CNE, by dismissing those who had been there for years and from all reports were impartial. John: Hugo called it a "victoria de mierda". The venezuelan CNE still hasn´t given official results nearly one year later. Hugo lost big, and couldn´t massage the numbers. The army stepped in and told him not to push the matter. If you think Hugo´s a real democrat, you´re smoking something. Uribe will leave after this next term.
