I’m in Boston, attending APSA (the largest American political science conference) & no one here seems to understand the Palin choice either. At least the buzz around the floor seems to be one of “I don’t get it” (though probably mostly because no one follows Alaska politics).
This is going to be the biggest electoral year in Bolivia’s history, it seems. So far 2008 has seen four departments hold their own autonomy referendums, a special by-election for prefect in Chuquisaca, and a nationwide recall referendum. Now it looks like we’ll see yet another round of elections: two referendums on the proposed constitution, by-elections for the prefects of La Paz & Cochabamba, and the country’s first ever elections for subprefects (provincial governors) & departmental councils. The elections are scheduled for December 7.
Just a quick note during a break in the project conference at UCSD. Since this is a mini-conference on electoral system, I’ll ignore the issue of the current bloqueos across Bolivia (especially around the gas-rich Chaco region). The interesting thing is that the future of Oruro’s prefect is uncertain. W/ the final results of the recall referendum, Alberto Aguilar (MAS) won 50.85%. That’s a slim majority, but according to the actual rules of the recall, he came up a bit short (I can’t now remember how short). Of course, the opposition had fought for the rules to be changed to accept only a simple majority; we'll see now whether partisanship overrides principle.
Below is a list of some of my recent publications available online or in PDF format. If you have questions, please feel free to send me an email.
//* Last updated: August 25, 2009 *//
I just got back from my 2-day new faculty orientation for new faculty at Mount St. Mary’s University. It was good to finally get some “face time” w/ the broader community beyond my department (though my department so far seems very nice).
Last weekend, Andy & Saloumeh came to visit (his birthday’s coming up). After enjoying the surprisingly excellent Indian food from our downstairs café (yes, our apartment building has a restaurant on the first floor) on Friday, we went downtown to Butcher’s Hill for some Peruvian food at El Rinconcito Peruano.
I don’t have time now to summarize the new phase of Bolivia’s political crisis (which included violence directed at the national police). But I think Costas overplayed his hand. He had a chance to use the results of the recall referendum as a springboard for a workable political compromise—which may still be on the table—but he opted instead to go for broke.
If you’ve watched CW network lately (don’t ask), you’ve no doubt been bombarded w/ ads for 90210, the sequel/spinoff of the original Beverly Hills 90210.
An anonymous comment to the previous post asks if the presidential powers are increased in the proposed constitution (CPE), relative to the existing CPE (the 2004 Constitution).
I thought it’d be interesting to look at the draft of the proposed Bolivian constitution approved a few months to see how it treats departmental autonomy.
After approving Departmental Law Nº 05, Santa Cruz plans to go forward w/ regional elections (currently scheduled for January 2009). The central government, of course, isn’t happy w/ the move. But it’s not yet clear what steps it’ll take to prevent the wholesale creation of an autonomous government structure in Santa Cruz.
Still no final numbers on Bolivia’s recall referendum, but results are already much clearer. W/ a near-final vote count, Oruro’s prefect is safe w/ just over 50% of the vote. That means that only 2 of 8 prefects up for recall lost their seats: Manfred Reyes Villa in Cochabamba & José Luis (“Pepelucho”) Paredes in La Paz. At least now Reyes Villa is also acknowledging his defeat.
We took Javi to his first county fair yesterday. He already loves animals, and we wanted to give him a chance to see some farm animals up close (he plays w/ farm animals in his bathtub). So we drove out to the Montgomery County Ag Fair in Gaithersburg.
The votes in Bolivia’s recall referendum are still being counted, but the results are well established by now (Evo won, as did most of the prefects). One of the losers was the La Paz prefect, José Luis Paredes. Formerly of MIR, he recently founded his own party (Plan Progreso) & was allied w/ PODEMOS. He conceded his defeat (something Cochabamba’s Manfred Reyes Villa hasn’t done).
MABB already posted the exit polls. But it looks like Evo will keep his seat (no surprise), and so will all of the pro-autonomy prefects (as will the Potosí prefect).
Bolivia’s recall referendum started today, though it’s not yet clear what counting formula will be used in the end (not the best scenario, of course). MABB has a good roundup of this.
We just got back from a Saturday excursion down to Inner Harbor. Last week was K8’s birthday, so I bought us tickets to the National Aquarium in Baltimore.
There’s been growing attention to the issue of regional divisions in Bolivia in the last few years. Of course, these didn’t start w/ Evo’s election (they have much, much longer histories). But they’ve certainly accelerated since early 2004, when a movement demanding regional political autonomy gained momentum. Nowhere is this truer than in Santa Cruz.
The Economist has a good analysis of Fernando Lugo, Paraguay’s incoming president. As w/ a number of other recently elected “leftists” in the region, the questions revolve around whether he’ll be a social democrat (like Lula or Bachelet) or a populist (like Correa or Chávez). So far, it looks like he’s more likely to move towards the social democrat position.
We’re coming up on the final 48 hours before Sunday’s recall referendum in Bolivia. Not much is likely to happen between now & then, based on legal restrictions placed before any vote (e.g. no alcohol can be sold, motorized transportation is restricted to authorized vehicles). As of this morning, the CNE is virtually running the country (in the sense that it has temporary command authority over the country's security forces).
I mentioned earlier some recent protests unsettling Evo’s government (mostly because they’re coming from the left, not the right). The protests have both escalated, and spread.
Our trip to Boston was exciting. It was great to see old friends again, and spend time discussing the finer points of Dark Knight (among other comic book related things). Here’s some pictures:
Wednesday (August 6th) is Bolivia’s national holiday. And the national team is playing an exhibition match at RFK stadium in Washington, DC. And it looks like Jaime Moreno will be playing. Wow. I’m so glad Baltimore is only a Light Rail, a MARC, and two Metro rides away.1 So, yes, K8 & I will be there, wearing our jerseys.
I didn’t actually attend the Boston ASA conference (K8 was giving a paper, so I was “Mr. Mom” & watched Javi). But K8 picked us up some interesting new books (all from Duke University Press).
Whew. Overall, it was a great trip. I think K8 had a good birthday (and a good conference), Javi managed very well w/ a radical departure from his routine, and we had a lot of fun w/ friends. We’ll post pictures later.