Despite signs of progress, Bolivia is again becoming tense. The last two weeks, the blame fell squarely on the opposition. This week, most of the blame falls on the government. MAS supporters are marching on Santa Cruz; they have been for days. All this while the government seeks a compromise w/ the opposition, but making no effort to prevent tens of thousands of (many of whom are armed) from descending from rural Cochabamba towards Santa Cruz in two columns (one from the west, one from the north). The marchers are calling for the resignation of Rubén Costas (the Santa Cruz prefect) & Branko Marinkovic (president of the Comité Cívico de Santa Cruz). Essentially, the government is using the marchers to push the opposition back to the negotiation table to accept a deal.
The move is additionally troubling because the marchers have announced that they’ll march in the 24 de Septiembre parades. Wednesday is the Santa Cruz regional holiday (each department has its own date, in addition to the national one of 6 de Agosto). The move will certainly antagonize regionalist sentiments & could provoke a confrontation. MAS organizers have a goal of 50,000 marchers by the end of the “radicalization” (they currently estimate their numbers at 20,000).
The Santa Cruz regionalists are painting the march as an “invasion” (after all, these are not rural Santa Cruz residents, for the most part, but rather MAS-controlled campesino unions marched in from Cochabamba coca growing valleys. The marchers also include Ponchos Rojos from the Andean altiplano. From a regionalist point of view, these are “foreigners” demanding the resignation of their “governor” (he’s no longer referred to as “prefect”)—who was recently supported by nearly 70% of voters in last month’s recall referendum.
Nearly a month ago, opposition forces seized government buildings throughout the media luna—but particularly in the city of Santa Cruz. The police & military put up little resistance, and essentially capitulated. This was a disaster for the government, and signaled a loss of state authority in the region. Clearly, Evo needed to respond & reassert the Bolivian state’s authority.
But using civilian supporters is not an appropriate response. As I’ve argued before, this is an invitation to more conflict & bloodshed. Why not use the military & police to reassert state authority in a controlled, disciplined manner? Why not halt the marchers as a sign of good faith in negotiations?
Meanwhile, the possible compromise between government & opposition over regional autonomies & the draft constitution have stalled out. The next 24 hours will remain tense.
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