More photos at my Flickr page

About

  • I’m Miguel Centellas, a political science professor at Mount St. Mary’s University. Because of academic interests, I post frequently on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in Baltimore.
  • Send questions & comments by email.

The Coffee Table

The Reference Desk

Noticias de Bolivia

  • A selected list of Bolivian news media:

    • Blogroll

Spread prediction: Obama wins 303-235

October 7, 2008
Tags:

It’s the day of the second presidential debate, and already the momentum has shifted back to Obama.

If you’re interested in electoral college math, check out the frequently updated Electoral Votes website. It currently has it scored 349-174-15 in Obama’s favor. This day four years ago, it was 264-243-17 in Bush’s favor. If you click around the site, you can see the data in a number of ways.

Meanwhile, over at techPresident, Obama still has a commanding lead over McCain in Facebook supporters at 1,994,302 to 555,194.

I know there’s still a month to go. And I’m sure every vote is important. But I’m going out on a limb & officially call it for Obama. I’m also going to give a respectable point spread of 303 to 235. So Obama can loose in Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada (all currently leaning Democratic), w/ McCain picking up North Carolina (currently tied), and still come out comfortably on top.

To give you a sense of how innevitable this is, McCain currently must pick up North Carolina, all “barely Democratic” states (Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada), plus Pennsylvania and any of the following (Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin). If he loses Pennsylvania, then he must win both Michigan & Wisconsin (regardless of what happens in Maine).

Perhaps now it’s time to start paying attention to the down-ticket races.

Post this to: Digg del.icio.us Facebook Newsvine reddit Technorati Google


Comments

Yes, I figure Obama will win by about 40 electoral votes looking at realclear. Since they average the polls i find them to be them ,most accurate in the last couple elections. Since I started voting I have voted 3 times for democratic presidents and 1 time for a republican.(Bush the first time)

This time I just cant choose. Mccain, seems to have developed the skills to fight political battles on a national/international stage but I have problems with his judgement: his handling of bailout bill showed no leadership. Obama, on the other hand stood back, kept quiet, and let the experienced leadership deal with the problem. Thats the problem with Obama, no experience. He hasn't authored a single bill as Senator, which isn't surprising considering he is the junior senator from Illinois.

So we have a guy who is capable but with suspect will, or a guy who I doubt is capable of change because his knowledge of national politics is mostly intellectual - like my knowledge of how to ride a bike before I tried it.

Talking points wont work when Obama has the job, and experience isnt any use if you can decide how to use it.

Posted by dv October 8, 2008 1:42 AM

    I still go for McCain.

    Posted by Anonymous October 8, 2008 9:57 AM

      I hope you are right Miguel, but remember hte Bradley effect. What people say, and what people do, might be different in the end as race is still a tricky beast here. Palin and McCain seem increasingly desperate, i.e. Obama hangs with terrorists claims. But so far their debate performances have not had a dramatic impact. Will we see more mud slinging???

      Posted by Miguel de los Shanqueros October 8, 2008 1:08 PM

        The election is over. McCain is having to fight for his life even in formerly solid red states such as IN and NC; even GA is no longer so clearly republican. Several battleground states have already tipped in Obama's direction (MI, PA, CO, NM, NV). He has opened a strong lead in OH and FL. Nationally, he is leading by 11 percentage points in today's Gallup tracking poll. At this stage, save an "October surprise", the tendency is probably irreversible.

        The Palin-McCain smear campaign has had no effect so far (if anything, it backfired). The republicans are running out of options, hence the shouts of "Obama terrorist" and "kill him" by the public at McCain and Palin rallies, which are more reminiscent of Nazi thugs' gatherings in 1930's Germany than of American democratic traditions. How could they fall so low? Fortunately, the public opinion is not rewarding this behavior this time.

        Posted by Jorge October 8, 2008 2:03 PM


          The Basics

          Search


          •

          Categories

          Archives

          Posta Classico