My friend MABB beat me to it, but there’s polling data out on Bolivia’s upcoming constitutional referendum (see his post). Overall, it looks like Bolivian voters will approve the new constitution (the one modified on October 21, 2008, in a compromise between MAS & opposition legislators, not the draft approved in December 2007). But regional differences matter: polls in the cities of El Alto, Oruro, and Potosí show support for the constitution exceeding 50%; polls in the cities of Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Sucre show opposition to the constitution exceeding 50%; results in the cities of Cochabamba, La Paz, and Trinidad (capital of Beni) are more mixed (see the report in La Prensa). And there are a lot of undecided voters out there. It’s going to be a voter turnout game.
The opposition has no one to put up to back their cause. Costas is a regional figure, but no one with nationwide creditability.
DV: Please read more carefully. Miguel's comments are about the constitution, not regional or national elections of politicians.
I think DV was suggesting that there's no national political figure w/ the clout to lead a "No" campaign. If so, I think he's right. The vote will again be highly polarized, so it will depend on voter turnout.