January 2009 Archives

Sara Miller Llana (who recently interviewed me for a story on Bolivia’s constitutional referendum) has a story on Afro-Bolivians in today’s Christian Science Monitor.

Results from Bolivia’s constitutional referendum are available from the CNE, which is still counting votes. Both because they’re not finished counting, and because I’m “Mr. Mom” for the next two days, I’ll hold my analysis for at least a few more days. But so far it’s starting to look as if the pattern from the August 2008 recall referendums is repeating itself.

Official results will follow next week month. But quick counts show that the CPE was approved by 58.7% of the vote. The figure is lower than Evo had predicted (and lower than he won in the recent recall referendum), but still a substantial margin of victory.

Very early counts have started coming in as polls close across much of Bolivia. So far, it looks like the new constitution has 60-62% of valid votes according to the Unitel, PAT, and Red Uno networks. Those numbers might change, of course (up or down). But we should also look at turnout and blank/null votes and regional differences. As the numbers stand, they are lower than Evo predicted a few days ago. If turnout is low and/or if the blank/null votes are high and/or if some regions vote against the CPE by substantial margins, it could complicate things.

Voting is, of course, still ongoing in Bolivia’s constitutional referendum. If you’re interested in doing a simple side-by-side comparison of the current (2004) Constitución Política del Estado (CPE) & the document voters are being asked to vote on today, the National Electoral Court published both texts in a single volume.

The campaigns for Bolivia’s constitutional referendum on Sunday are winding down. Technically, all campaign activities are supposed to end today, as pre-election restrictions (e.g. no sale of alcohol at least 24 hours before polls open) start to come into play.

Just a quick note on some new political figures who are joining the “No” campaign in Bolivia’s upcoming constitutional referendum. Today’s La Razón reports that Carlos Mesa & Loyola Guzmán have joined the “No” campaign.

I’ve waited months, anxiously, for the return of Battlestar Galactica, which heads into its last episodes of its final season after a mid-season hiatus. It looks like I’ll have to wait a little longer: I have (another) overnight retreat for new faculty to attend (please, TiVo, don’t fail me now!).

Bolivia’s constitutional referendum is Sunday, January 25. The referendum is, by now, only loosely based on the work of the Constituent Assembly elected in June 2006 or the actual draft text approved in December 2007 (in a meeting in Oruro, rather than Sucre, that excluded most members of the opposition). Throughout most of 2008, the country was in political turmoil. Late in October 2008, opposition & MAS legislators forged an agreement—which included a substantial rewrite of the draft constitution (CPE, for “Constitución Política del Estado”)—and set the stage for the upcoming referendum. Could 2009 offer a new beginning for Bolivia?

Forgive the temporary digest form, but a few interesting news bombshells today from Bolivia:

Lots of updates to come tomorrow, as I slowly get back into gear from the holiday break. First priority, of course: updates w/ pictures of Javi’s first Christmas & birthday in Chicago. Next, Bolivian politics—particularly as the constitutional referendum is now just around the corner.

Today’s La Razón, however, has an interesting report suggesting possible electoral fraud in the August recall referendum. I’ll look at that closely for tomorrow.