Bolivia pre-referendum update

Many are likely familiar w/ Carlos Mesa, an ex-president. He took over in October 2003 after Goni resigned during the Gas War (Mesa was Goni’s vice president). Mesa was a respected media commentator & historian recruited to run as Goni’s running mate in 2002; he remains relatively popular (and is considering a run for the presidency), despite his own resignation in 2005. Mesa’s “No” stance isn’t surprising, though it suggests a defection of sectors of the paceño middle-class intelligentsia.

Most are probably not very familiar (if at all) w/ Guzmán. But she is a fairly well-known human rights activist & was elected a MAS delegate to the Constituent Assembly (from an electoral district in the city of La Paz). Additionally, she was a member of Che Guevara’s Bolivian expedition (she was the treasurer of the Bolivian Marxist faction that joined Che’s guerrilla force). Her defection from MAS, alongside that of Mesa, suggests that a number of other middle-class paceños who may think of themselves as “leftists” or “socialists” may peeling away from Evo Morales.

I still think the referendum will pass; But I’m beginning to wonder about how narrow the margin might get. I also don’t think the draft CPE is inherently “bad” (flawed, yes, but not in any “fatal” way). But enough people seem to disapprove of the document—or the way it was approved (that seems to be Guzmán’s criticism)—to suggest a lack of a broad consensus.

One should note something about the Ley Convocatoria 3941 that defines the referendum. The new CPE, if approved by voters, will not immediately go into effect. It still requires approval by a 2/3 legislative supermajority (here the opposition can put up a roadblock). But the legislature is also empowered to make any “necessary adjustments” based on “popular will” (here the opposition or government could make changes). So the referendum is likely not the final word.