Bolivian constitutional referendum (very) early counts

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Very early counts have started coming in as polls close across much of Bolivia. So far, it looks like the new constitution has 60-62% of valid votes according to the Unitel, PAT, and Red Uno networks. Those numbers might change, of course (up or down). But we should also look at turnout and blank/null votes and regional differences. As the numbers stand, they are lower than Evo predicted a few days ago. If turnout is low and/or if the blank/null votes are high and/or if some regions vote against the CPE by substantial margins, it could complicate things.

Also, check the Global Voices Bolivia Twitter feed for more up-to-the-moment information.

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Update: Just after I posted the above, the ATB network released new numbers (w/ about 60% of the total count reported) showing that only 50.6% of voters were supporting the CPE. Their figures include rural/urban differences, showing urban voters opposing the CPE by 57%, while rural voters support the CPE by 78%. Things are going to get complicated very quickly.

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Miguel: Any idea why there'd be a gap of 10% between Unitel and ATB?

As new numbers come in, they get updated. There was a gap of well over an hour between the two.

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  • I’m Miguel Centellas, Croft Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Mississippi. I post semi-regularly about Bolivian politics, as well as interesting books, pop culture, and daily life in my new home of Oxford, Mississippi.
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