The campaigns for Bolivia’s constitutional referendum on Sunday are winding down. Technically, all campaign activities are supposed to end today, as pre-election restrictions (e.g. no sale of alcohol at least 24 hours before polls open) start to come into play.
Bolivia’s vice president Alvaro García Linera predicts that two thirds of Bolivians will vote to ratify the constitution. But he also made clear that if a majority of voters (nationwide) vote “Sí” the MAS government will immediately impose the new constitution (CPE) across the entire territory. The comments came after some Media Luna regional leaders warned that they wouldn’t apply the new CPE in their territory if voters there didn’t also approve it. According to the convocatoria law, only an absolute majority (50%+1) of voters need to approve the new CPE.
Earlier, MAS leaders predicted that they would win 80% of the national vote. They’re now releasing internal polls that suggest they will only receive 66% (still, two thirds of the national vote). The latter figure is more consistent w/ .
Regardless of Sunday’s vote, however, the convocatoria law also stipulates that the National Congress must then also approve the new CPE. The law also suggests that the legislature could modify the text, though it is supposed to respect the popular will.
It’s that level of ambiguity that make things complicated. Could the legislature alter the text? Evo has already stated that if the legislature doesn’t approve the new CPE, he will put its provisions into place by presidential decree. On the other hand, he’s left some wiggle room for a revision. After all, the Constituent Assembly (although w/o any opposition members present) approved a draft CPE, which was technically supposed to go before a popular referendum. This was in December 2007. Then, after a tumultuous several months, MAS negotiated a substantially revised document w/ opposition legislators in October 2008. That is the text going before voters on Sunday. Could there be another government-opposition negotiation after the referendum? It’s not outside the realm of possibilities.
Just yesterday, NACLA posted a good summary of some of the new provisions in the proposed new constitution. As Alex van Schaick points out, of course, whether these extensive promises can be fulfilled will be an interest test. Evo has regularly ratcheted up expectations, and Bolivians (nearly half of whom live in poverty) may want concrete results. Certainly, this current economic climate (which is hitting Bolivia especially hard) is not going to help.
Very recently, Lula visited Bolivia. While he showed his support for Evo’s government, Lula also publicly called upon him to govern “for everyone,” not just the poor. As the price of oil collapses, Brazil is overtaking Venezuela as the dominant economic & political power in South America. Evo has frequently shown himself to be very politically savvy; he may be able to seamlessly transition from a “populist” leftist (like Chávez) to a “social democratic” one (like Lula). After all, Evo was originally elected by a broad coalition that included many social democratic parties (like MBL & MSM), as well as significant sectors of the middle class (particularly in La Paz & Sucre). Over time, he has lost many members of his larger “big tent” coalition. But he could win them back, particularly if the Media Luna leaders start to show themselves to be increasingly inflexible.
Mcentellas: You had commented in the previous article "Bolivia digest update" that when discussing the inflation of voter rolls and the resulting possible ballot box stuffing you said "a better test will be to see how many names are dropped by the CNE."
Have you heard any ballots being dropped?
A breakdown of the voters dropped by the CNE can be found in their report on the subject. Basically, it looks like about half a million names were dropped (depurados) from the rolls. If you look at the final numbers, fewer voters are registered (habilitados) for 2009 than in 2008.
It will be approved, but without some "help." There are reports in the media of not-so-indelible ink being distrubuted, as well as of dead and minors being registered.
Regardless, the bottom line is that the "good intentions" of the MAS et al. will only condemn Bolivia to further poverty and it will not be until after pro-transnacional legislation is passed that things will improve. Heck, even Chavez is on his knees begging Big Oil to please come back and invest in his country.