Official results will follow next week month. But quick counts show that the CPE was approved by 58.7% of the vote. The figure is lower than Evo had predicted (and lower than he won in the recent recall referendum), but still a substantial margin of victory.
The breakdowns are as follows: 52% of city voters backed the CPE, compared to 82% of rural voters. The regional breakdowns also show significant polarization: More than 60% of voters in the Media Luna (Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Tarija) rejected the CPE. Chuquisaca saw a nearly 50/50 split (breaking in favor), mirroring the recent prefecture election. More than 70% of voters backed the CPE in La Paz & Potosí.
If the numbers hold up (and they almost certainly will), it will next depend on how quickly the legislature ratifies the document, or whether we see yet another round of political negotiations.
It will be interesting to see how the constitution did in the rural areas of the Media Luna departments. Probably a lot like the last election, given the large minority of voters that voted for both Evo and their prefect in that round (as you pointed out). And of course, how all these results might affect the balance between MAS and the opposition.
Yes, I'm waiting to for the official numbers to start looking at the rural/urban split across the different departments. Should be interesting to see.
Provincial results are up now for some departments. Here are results for Tarija, which is 100% counted:
Cercado (city of Tarija) 34% yes to CPE
O'Connor 58%
Mendez 55%
Aviles 58%
Arce 59%
Gran Chaco 47%
I think we'll see a similar pattern in other "Media Luna" departments.
Results: http://www.cne.org.bo/ResultadosRNC2009/wfrmConstituyente.aspx
Click on Resultados por area geografico--Constituyente.
Thanks, John. I'm doing "Mr. Mom" duty for the next two days. But I plan on diving into those figures soon enough. So far, the figures do look very much like the patterns from the recall referendum. It's possible we're seeing signs of a new realignment (following the post-2003 "dealignment").
Any concern about the OEA fraud reports? They seem pretty isolated, but the opposition seems to be gearing up to try to prevent implementation, using fraude as a tool. Given that the US can't hold elections without some problems, I am not sure one can expect perfect elections in Bolivia. Anyway, I guess the CNE will take a look at the OEA report.
@Shanqueros: Agreed. So far, it looks like fraud (or other problems) were minor. But, much like in the US, partisans will gear up for those kinds of fights. For me, the real issue is that opposition to the constitution was significant & concentrated enough that the legislature might drag its heels. Who knows, maybe Evo will (like he did a few months ago) claim that the approved CPE was only a "negotiating position" for yet another compromise.