I’m a political science professor who posts regularly on Bolivian politics. I also occasionally discuss interesting books, pop culture, and daily life with a toddler. I’ve recently moved to Oxford, Mississippi.
I want to be careful here, and say “may have,” for a number of reasons. First, this is breaking news & all I know for sure at this time is that police raided a hotel room in Santa Cruz & captured at least three foreign nations who were in possessions of weapons & explosives. The arrest did not happen during an assassination attempt. And I’ve (so far) only seen reports that Evo himself (who is currently in Venezuela) is calling this a foiled assassination attempt. Everything seems to fit his description (though they could also be members of a drug cartel or involved in some other illicit activity), but he has made such claims often enough (previously w/ no real evidence to substantiate the claims) that I want to be cautiously skeptical (or at least until the police themselves issue such a report). Perhaps it’s the liberal in me who presumes innocence until proof of guilt. I’m not convinced by Evo’s argument that this was perpetrated by his opponents because of “the people’s victory” in passing the electoral law (since the approved law actually concedes most points to the opposition, giving it a significant tactical victory). Also, another report suggests police believe the attacks were going to be against members of the government and the opposition, and that these individuals may have been involved in the attack on Cardinal Julio Terrazas (an autonomy supporter) a few days ago.
If true, however, this is serious. The assassination of any public figure—and especially an elected official—is a serious breach of the democratic process. There can be no doubt about that.
It remains to be seen who the figures where and/or what their true motives were. If this was an assassination attempt by a fringe right-wing group, it would be in the opposition’s interest to swiftly & categorically repudiate such acts & groups (just as it would be nice to see the government repudiate acts of violence by fringe left-wing or populist groups).
The BBC reported on this. Morales is describing the three dead foreigners as mercenaries. According to the BBC reports vary on their origin: Romanian, Hungarian and Irish. Miguel is right that they could be narcos and not mercenaries. It will interesting to see if there is any new evidence and/or connections with the Terrazas incident. Probably not, but who knows. It is sadly reminscent of Bolivia in the 1960s and 1970s.
Posted by
Miguel de los Shanqueros
April 17, 2009 1:49 PM
Yes, I'm waiting for more real, tangible evidence to come out. Bolivia has a history of political crazies. In 2006 an American blew up a hostel in La Paz (a hostel, of all places?) and then it was discovered that he was just a crazy cultist w/ a Brazilian girlfriend 20+ years older than him. These things happen, crazily enough. Frankly, I don't think this was part of an assassination attempt. If so, it's one of the worst conspiracies ever assembled if it was broken up so easily by the Bolivian police (based on my experience w/ the Bolivian police).
Perhaps political crazies they be, but they appear linked to the media luna in some form or another, at least with the political sympathies.
Posted by
Miguel de los Shanqueros
April 17, 2009 7:54 PM
So why were they allegedly going to take out the (pro-autonomy) bishop and Costas?
And if they were such highly trained, experienced mercenaries, how come they totally flubbed their first target?
And such convenient timing, too... right after Evo finishes his diet, er, hunger strike, and makes a triumphant appearance next to Hugo.
Posted by
Frank IBC
April 17, 2009 11:51 PM
I'm skeptical of claims that these guys were directed by the opposition **or** by the government. I'm going to wait until there is some more definitive information coming out of an investigation before I jump to conclusions. In part, because both sides (government & opposition) have shown themselves to use **different** tactics of intimidation over the past few years; I can't imagine either side deciding to go all rogue mercenary suddenly. Especially since early reports suggest they targeted Evo **and** Costas.
My guess? These guys were crazy (e.g. Manson types) who thought Bolivia would be an easy place to get their kicks (e.g. Butch & Sundance). Time will tell, of course. I think it's important to keep calm, rational, and not jump to conclusions. This may also be a good time for **both** government & opposition to reflect on what increased polarization, spiraling rhetoric, and confrontational tactics could lead to.
To me, this group of five, doesn't look like real professional mercenaries, rather adventurer-mercenaries (4 of them have facebook entries) still being in the terrorist category! But you don't know what's still on the ground in Bolivia.
