Our first few days in Santa Cruz are mostly devoted to catching up w/ my parents & relatives, so I’ve not had a chance to really scour the Bolivian news. There will be much more of that when we get to La Paz, obviously. But the two main stories that seem to dominate everyone’s attention are swine flu (N1H1, here called A1H1) & deteriorating Bolivia-Peru relations.
The flu scare seems quite serious. We were greeted at the airport by young medical staff—all w/ facemasks & clipboards—who kept asking everyone if they had felt ill or coughed recently. It was a bit unnerving. Since then, we’ve seen a few (only a few) people wearing facemasks in public. But the TV news & the front page of the papers is carrying information about that, including the recent death of the first H1N1 death in Florida.
Politically, however, I’m much more interested in the continual decline of Bolivia-Peru relations. Peru has historically been on of Bolivia’s closest allies, particularly as a partner in dealing w/ Chile (both countries fought a war against Chile in 1878 in which Bolivia lost its seacoast). There’s rumor that the disagreement is more personal than political, based on longstanding animosities between Evo & Alan Garcia (Peru’s president) that go back to the 1990s.
Either way, the Peruvian government is quickly attacking Evo for “interfering” in Peru’s internal affairs—including accusations that Bolivia’s president is fomenting violence or perhaps even materially supporting an indigenous insurrection in Peru. Such accusations are interesting, of course, because they are the very kind of accusations Evo himself frequently makes towards other countries (particularly the US) whenever their representatives meet w/ or otherwise encourage the activities of opposition groups. Today, Peru withdrew its ambassador from Bolivia in protest.
For his part, Evo’s mostly attacking Alan Garcia personally & blaming Peru’s government of deliberately orchestrating a massacre of indigenous people (34 peopled died in clashes about two weeks ago, including 24 Peruvian security personnel). But there seems to be no effort to deny Evo’s ideological affinity for the Peruvian indigenous movement—and several recent public statements on their behalf confirm that he is at least a verbal “supporter” of their cause.
None of this is illegal, of course. National leaders have the liberty to speak their minds about events in other countries; they also have the right to associate w/ opposition figures (at least, they do if we believe in liberal-pluralist democracy). But it’s ironic that Bolivia’s government is being accused of acting in Peru in the same way that it accuses other countries (particularly the US) of meddling in its own affairs (several editorialists are relishing that ironic twist). Such intervention is also, of course, taboo w/in the region. Most states have a reputation of backing sitting governments (the whole sovereignty thing), even at times when it may not be popular to do so (most countries publicly supported Goni in 2003, just as they did Chávez in 2002).
But the entire episode is complicating bilateral Bolivia-Peru relations. The most recent attacks by Evo linking the violence in Peru to the US-Peru free trade agreement (though a good argument can be made for some sort of relation, of course, as AS/COA suggested earlier) highlight this.
There’s now also a (minor) tiff w/ Paraguay, over a recent speech by Evo.
My personal instinct is that this is very good for Evo’s reelection. Evo may be souring some of his relations abroad. But citizens of Peru & Paraguay don’t vote. And it’s easy to prey on longstanding anti-Peruvian xenophobia (a classic explanation for crime is “hay mucho peruano” [“there’s too many Peruians”]). It may not be good IR, but that’s good electoral politics. After four years in office & more than six years since October 2003, Evo is reminding voters of “Black October” all over again. What better way to mobilize the base?
I’m curious to see if/when a real opposition figure emerges. So far the only viable candidate officially in the race is Potosí’s mayor, Rene Joaquino. He’s popular—in Potosí (where he’s been reelected multiple times). But he failed to win the department’s prefecture w/ his own party (AS, Alianza Social) in 2005; his party also didn’t do well in the 2006 constituent assembly election. I doubt he’ll captivate the nation’s vote in 2009. So far the election is Evo’s to lose. He’s keeping his name in the news, controversially or not. And, as someone famously quipped: There’s no such thing as bad publicity.
