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One week of research down

June 27, 2009
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I’ve spent the better part of a week on my research in Bolivia. One of the odd things about this, of course, is that in a whirlwind trip I have limited time to pay attention to “current event” news in detail. Sure, there’s the kind of soaking & poking that happens (including reading interesting graffiti everywhere), but that never really makes up for careful, thorough analysis of facts (as opposed to knee-jerk reactions based on ideological prejudices). But balancing time between spending hours tucked away in the Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional & entertaining w/ Javi (my 18-month-old) limits that kind of thorough “on the scene” analysis. Still, there were a few interesting moments.

Yesterday, leaving the Biblioteca about 20 minutes earlier than usual, I encountered an interesting march. La Paz, of course, is famous for it marches. But this one was much more interesting than previous ones. From what I could see, it was representatives of Manuel Pando, a rural La Paz municipality. But no one on the street could tell me what they were marching for (or against), though I overheard rumors that they wanted greater autonomy and/or control over their mineral resources (“like the cambas” one person said). But unlike the marches from previous years, they were dressed in full ethnic regalia (including tall feather hats), marching in military parade files (six across, several rows deep, in companies). Their march also included bands (each “company” was led by a full ensemble of drums, panflutes, fifes, and other “traditional” instruments).

Otherwise, the city seems tense but calm. Most of the graffiti in La Paz calls for voting for the new constitution (the election was in January). It’s interesting, however, to see the “official” billboards & posters that call for a yes vote. A giant billboard at the bottom of the Prado proclaims that the new CPE offers protections for private property. The posters facing the UMSA (the state La Paz university) bear the slogan “Bolivia unida con Autonomías.” None of this suggests the kind of radical socialism many MAS supporters (particularly outside Bolivia) think the government pursues.

On the other hand, there are constant TV/radio ads for Evo (not so much for MAS, the party) & his government. Almost every billboard in front of a government office or proclaiming some new government initiative bears his picture. This suggests a growing personalization of the regime, not unlike previous populist regimes in Bolivia & across Latin America, particularly in the 1950s-1970s. It’s also clear that the regime emphasizes nationalism & anti-imperialism more than it does traditional Marxist socialism.

In the news headlines, many of the same stories remain. The growing rift between Bolivia & Peru continues, and has become even more aggressive than the earlier rift w/ the US. Coca production (and seizure) seems to be increasing dramatically. The end of preferences for Bolivia’s exports to the US (through the ATPDEA) continues to worry people (though this morning the government announced that the loss in trade would only cost $2 million & 1,000 jobs). Otherwise, the road to the December election continues, after overcoming the potential hurdle of requiring a biometric voter registration system (a deal was reached a few weeks ago). No one seems to doubt that Evo will win reelection; the question is merely how & by how much. Interestingly, Evo this week even announced he might abandon MAS & campaign alone if his party didn’t get behind his proposals (there’s been growing rifts between elements w/in the MAS party/movement, including a growing number of defections).

The one problem—which could turn into an Achilles heel for Evo—is the growing tendency for local communities to announce that they will not allow opposition candidates/parties to campaign in their communities. Defended abroad (by some) for various reasons, this clearly violates the principles of a free, fair, open election. The reason this could turn into an Achilles heel is that it gives tremendous power to local caudillos. So long as they back Evo/MAS, this is a boost for the government & an easy way to increase its vote share. But what if local caudillos (as many have) abandon Evo/MAS? This happened to the MNR in the 1960s, which in large part explained its loss of hegemony (from 1952-1960 it was able to win nearly three quarters of the national vote). Not to mention, of course, that if only one party (whether MAS or another) is able to campaign in a geographic area, there is no incentive for that party to really represent constituents (no competition means a captured vote).

Still, my current concerns are legislative committee assignments in the 1980s & 1990s. So far, I’ve worked my way through 1985-1990 (skipping the 1987-1988 session missing from the archives). Hopefully, I’ll get through this by middle of next week (w/ a great debt of gratitude to the Biblioteca staff). Then I can start tracking down candidate lists for 1985 & 1989 (which the CNE doesn’t have, so I’ll have to go through published newspaper lists). It also doesn’t help that CNE’s archives are in the process of being moved to a bigger space in Obrajes. The bright news is that Salvador Romero just published (earlier this month!) a complete dictionary of legislators for 1979-2009. At first glance, it includes a great deal of the biographic information is included.

But this weekend is time for a break. We’re meeting relatives for lunch, then maybe we’ll take Javi to the lagoon in Cota Cota. Sunday is the (unexpected!) match between USA & Brazil for the FIFA Confederations Cup. Monday it’s back to work at the congressional archives.

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Comments

"None of this suggests the kind of radical socialism many MAS supporters (particularly outside Bolivia) think the government pursues."
and the opponents too.
No photo of the march?

Posted by Amazilia June 28, 2009 5:35 PM

    Well, I think the opponents overplay the "socialism" of MAS and its international supporters underplay the conservative/populist nationalism of MAS.

    Also, I wasn't carrying my camera when I ran across the march. After all, I was mostly focusing on archive work at the Biblioteca del Congreso. Sorry.

    Posted by mcentellas June 28, 2009 8:38 PM

      Can you tell me a little more about your research? What is it exactly you're writing about?

      Posted by lazurduy July 2, 2009 10:34 AM

        @Lazurduy: The research at this state is actually rather preliminary. It's part of a broader NSF (National Science Foundation) grant that's looking at a number of countries (Ukraine, Lithuania, Portugal, Germany, UK, New Zealand, Japan, and Bolivia) to see if candidate recruitment strategies change in countries that undergo electoral system change. Our cases include cases that underwent electoral system change, and cases that didn't (our "control" cases).

        In the mid-1990s, Bolivia went from a traditional list-PR electoral system to a mixed-member system (like the kind used in Germany). We want to see if the kind of candidates that parties put on their electoral lists were noticeably different between the 1985-1993 elections & the 1997-2005 elections. To do that, we're building a huge database of party candidates from 1985-2005 for Bolivia (and other researchers are doing the same for the other cases). In about two years, we should be ready to start crunching some numbers to see if the standing hypothesis (that electoral system change encourages changes in candidate recruitment strategies) holds true.

        So, basically, right now I'm not actually writing anything. I'm building gigantic spreadsheets.

        Posted by mcentellas July 2, 2009 3:14 PM


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