Our second week in La Paz has been both uneventful (in general) & somewhat cautious (Javi has a stomach problem). My research is still moving forward at a decent pace. I’ve almost finished the section on legislative careers (coding all of the members of Chamber of Deputy commissions from 1985-2009).
The news here has primarily focused on two major (international) stories: the military coup in Honduras & the death of Michael Jackson. Las Sunday’s coup in Honduras coup was quite a shock, since it seemed to old-fashioned. Zelaya may very well have overstepped his authority (he tried to put together a popular referendum against the wishes of the Supreme Court, parliament, the military, and his own party). But “arresting” a president in his pajamas & exiling him (by military plane) to another country (Costa Rica) is also a gross over-reaction (to put it mildly). It was nice to see the international community (including the US) quickly condemn the coup for what it was—an illegitimate democratic reversal—though it doesn’t look like things on the ground (in Honduras) will get any better soon.
In Bolivia, the big news this week was that the US has definitively cancelled Bolivia’s benefits of the ATPDEA (a free trade deal linked to anti-drug benchmarks). The reaction from Evo’s government throughout the week swung back & forth. First, Evo made conciliatory overtures to Obama, and made clear that his government would push to improve Bolivia-US relations & make extension of the ATPDEA a priority. Then the news broke that Bolivia coca production increased dramatically (far more than local, traditional, non-narcotic consumption demands). On the one hand, the UN praised Bolivia for seizing so much more cocaine this year than last year. On the other hand, Bolivia was producing much more coca paste & cocaine than before. That prompted Obama decision not to extend ATPDEA trade preferences. Then Evo responded w/ a personal attack on Obama (saying the “physiognomy” of the country’s leader had changed, but not its policies). Evo also announced that dignity was worth more than markets, while his ministers downplayed the economic impact. About a day later, the government acknowledged that the loss in markets would reach more than $20 million & 10,000 jobs (about 0.1% of the total population). The effect will be hardest on La Paz textiles, but perhaps also some mining. The current pressure is on to find alternative markets, particularly for Bolivian textiles. There’s hope that Venezuela can pick up the slack, though some are starting to note that Venezuela is a smaller market (and that it also doesn’t buy many sweaters).
Such news comes at a bad time for Evo, w/ the elections only six months away (still, no opposition candidate comes close in any polls). The decision by many local rural communities to ban opposition candidates, despite catching some flack, will likely secure his victory by ensuring nearly unanimous votes in large parts of the countryside (about 40% of the total population). Unless, of course, local communities decide to back non-MAS candidates.
Otherwise, La Paz is celebrating its bicentennial (the first “independence” movement here started in July 1809). The whole affairs seems to me a bit ironic, since only a few months ago Evo dismissed the importance of Sucre’s bicentennial celebration (its May 1809 “independence” movement is recognized as the “first” in Spanish America). I find it ironic not only because in most ways the Sucre & La Paz revolts were similar (mostly criollo, elite rebellions against Napoleon’s authority in Spain, which later descended into truly “republican” revolts), but also because Evo made a big deal about trying to attend Sucre’s 199th anniversary last year (which resulted in a protracted conflict w/ local anti-MAS civic/regionalist leaders).
Nevertheless, all the month of July is dedicated to a celebration of La Paz & its position as the country’s “principal” city. Most of the events are organize by the mayor, Juan Del Granado, not Evo’s government. Though Juan “Sin Miedo” is a close ally of Evo (he’s credited w/ handing MAS victories in the urban voting districts of La Paz). It’s actually a great time to be in La Paz (if you have free time), because of all the cultural activities (theater productions, music festivals, etc.) organized through the alcaldia. The even also coincides w/ La Paz being named this year’s Iberoamerican “cultural capital.”
Overall, we’re enjoying our stay, though we spend much of it trying to find things for a (currently sick) 18-month-old to do. K8 watches in the mornings, when I go to the congressional archives. Then, if I don’t have a meeting or another trip to the archives, I meet them & we do something together. Mostly, we run around Plaza Avaroa, watching dogs, feeding pidgeons, and going up/down the metal slide or crawling through the yellow kid-friendly sculpture.
Hopefully, he’ll be better soon. Also, hopefully, the CNE archives will be finally in their new storage space, so that I can look through them to find names of candidates for 1985, 1989, and 1993 elections (as well as municipal councils for 1991). After that, I have all the data I can get on a three-week trip. The rest is up to my RA, who’ll have the fun job of tracking down candidate bios. Luckilly, we’ve triaged the list down to a manageable 1,200 or so candidates.
It is unfortunate ATPDEA no extension, that only will make Bolivia more dependent of Venezuela.
Regardless of one's ideological position on Venezuela's current government, I find it unlikely that Venezuela could replace the US as a market for Bolivia's textiles (both in volume & in kind). Additionally, Venezuela is actually Bolivia's principal competitor in terms of natural gas. The panic that this will impact Bolivia's economy unfavorably, worse yet in a period of global economic crisis, is starting to worry a lot of people here.