A new Mori poll just came out today in El Deber. The poll’s interesting, even if it doesn’t tell us much about voter intent (it was a poll asking respondents to rate tickets on a good/regular/bad three-point scale).
According to the poll, 55% of respondents rated the MAS ticket (Evo Morales & Alvaro Garía Linera) as “good,” w/ only 21% rating it as “bad.” This suggests that Evo/MAS has high support, consistent w/ previous polls.
What’s interesting, is the difference between the PPB-CN & UN ratings. Respondents were more likely to view the PPB-CN ticket (Manfred Reyes Villa & Leopoldo Fernández) as “good” (30%) than the UN ticket (24%). This is consistent w/ previous (but now outdated by new developments) polls that showed Manfred as the most popular opposition challenger. But the other side of the coin is that more respondents rated Manfred/Leopoldo as a “bad” ticket (48%) than the SDM/Helbing ticket (27%). So while Manfred/Leopoldo are more likely to be liked by some opposition voters (their core supporters), they are also more likely to be disliked by half the electorate. Not surprisingly, this shows how polarizing the Manfred/Leopoldo ticket is. In other words, the Manfred/Leopoldo ticket seems to be the clear Condorcet loser.
The only other ticket to receive enough responses to merit attention was AS (René Joaquino & Charles Suarez) w/ a fair mix of good/bad responses. Joaquino has an uphill battle to climb in voter intention polls, but he’s clearly less polarizing than Manfred/Leopoldo.
Other candidates were included in the poll, but received many more “no responses” than anything useful, making it clear that voters are almost unaware of these candidates. Unless they can fire up the imagination, it does seem that MAS, UN, and PPB-CN will dominate the election, w/ AS as a potential spoiler.
