Where Evo stands before the starting gun goes off

Most of the public opinion data (the recent Gallup poll seems an anomaly) suggests two basic trends: The first, is that more Bolivians are more likely to tell pollsters that they approve of Evo’s job performance as president than are likely to tell pollsters that they will likely vote for Evo in the upcoming election. The second, is that Evo’s public support has been increasing over the past three months after a sharp decline earlier this year. Whether that momentum continues is an open question.

I’m skeptical of the recent Gallup poll that gave Evo 57.5% support in the upcoming election because it doesn’t fit the pattern. It seems unlikely that Evo’s support jumped from 45% to 58% (a difference of 13 points) from July to August. It’s perhaps more likely that (as the Mori poll suggests), Evo’s approval fell (as opposition presidential candidates gained the spotlight) from 45% to 43% (a difference of only 2 points, well w/in each polls margin of error) in the same period. But I’m going to wait for another poll (preferably from Apoyo) to get a better sense.

Either way, Evo is well above the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff (if no opposition candidate gets w/in 10 points). And he’s moving closer to topping 50%. But the gap between general approval & intention to vote is an interesting one. I’ll keep updating this chart as more data becomes available over the next three months.

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For more on this, see MABB.