Bolivia election update

But today there’s an interesting wrinkle. The CNE declared that parties & candidates can’t campaign by using—or making references to (?!)—public policies or works (or obras). That goes for both government & opposition, and for all levels of government (national, department, and municipal). The announcement (see story in La Razón) was clearly meant to limit incumbents (both government & opposition candidates) from using “works” for clientelistic practices (a time-honored tradition not only in Latin America, but around the world). Fair enough. But I’m not really sure how practical the ruling is. How does one distinguish between an incumbent “campaigning” for office or just “doing their job” by showing up to present a new public work.

Obviously, all public works have electoral consequences, so incumbents will seek to publicize them as much as possible. Does the CNE really believe Evo, Costas, Savina, or any of the various ministers, prefects/governors, legislators, or mayors backing candidates will stop producing public works for their constituents for the next two months? If not, how will the CNE determine whether Evo (who’s running for reelection) is visiting Camiri to present a new road as head of state or as candidate? Or what about determining whether Savina (Chuquisaca’s prefect) is announcing a new departmental health initiative as prefect or as a public ally of an opposition candidate?

Back to the “drama” side of things, here’s a quick rundown of the last few days: Mallku (Felipe Quispe), the firebrand indigenous leader, has challenged Evo to a debate in Aymara (Evo has stated that, as in previous elections, he doesn’t plan to debate anyone, in any language). Leopoldo will remain in prison (awaiting trial) while he runs for the vice presidency. A minor party (MUSPA) declared Nagatani (the 2005 MNR presidential candidate) as its VP candidate; Nagatani clarified that this was not the case. UN’s Doria Media accuses Manfred’s PPB coalition of trying to snipe its candidates (by asking them to resign their candidacies, to back Manfred’s presidential run). Everywhere, MAS supporters hassle opposition candidates; and vice versa. A group of young students from other countries (mostly in Latin America) campaigned for Evo in Santa Cruz, on their way to visit Che’s burial cite in Valle Grande (a popular tourist attraction). While most parties launched their campaigns in La Paz, only MAS launched its campaign in Santa Cruz (huh?). All the while, of course, various protests shut down large swaths of La Paz on a regular basis.

There’s more, of course. But that’s the gist of it. Meanwhile, Evo is still up (and gaining) in recent polls. The surprise is that while he’s up nationwide, his electoral support has actually declined in La Paz & El Alto, but has increased in Santa Cruz. This may be a clever electoral strategy. Evo doesn’t need 90% support levels (as he used to have) in La Paz & El Alto to win most of the region’s seats. So losses there, if offset by significant gains in Santa Cruz may very well be worth it. I’m going to be particularly interested to see how votes shift at the rural municipal level this election.