Some new pre-electoral polls in Bolivia came out over the last few days, including a new Ipsos poll in today’s La Razón. All the polls make clear that Evo is almost certainly going to win reelection. The only question is whether he will increase his vote share (his “popular mandate”) from 2005 & whether MAS will be able to gain control of the Bolivian Senate (opposition parties currently hold a two-seat advantage).
So far, the campaigns have taken some interesting twists. Although MAS was able to (forcefully) reassert control over El Alto, a protest there last week by the city’s mayor (over the government’s decision to cut municipal funding) & FEJUVE (the federation of neighborhood associations) showed a potential disaffection w/ Evo from his strongest base of support. Coupled w/ growing murmurs of discontent among indigenous leaders (some of which dissipated after MAS appointee candidates resigned to make way for grass-roots indigenous candidates), this suggested potential slackening of support for Evo Morales from the La Paz altiplano, his strongest bastion of support since 2005.
The El Alto situation still isn’t fully resolved. The mayor in question is, Fanor Nava, whose political trajectory took him from MIR to PP (the party of former El Alto mayor José Luis Paredes, a current Manfred ally) to MAS (when he & five other PP municipal council members defected to join MAS). The trajectory (shared by many in the MAS ranks) led Evo to denounce the move as “prebendalism,” claiming that Nava & FEJUVE were being manipulated by “political” interests (i.e. because of Nava’s former membership in PP, now PPB, Manfred’s political banner). But after Nava resigned (as did the FEJUVE president, who went into hiding), the El Alto municipal council was unable to select a new mayor from among three contenders. Yesterday, Nava w/drew his resignation, arguing that he counts on the support of FEJUVE. This could be a potential problem for Evo, since FEJUVE is widely recognized as the most potent social force in Bolivia. As the backbone of “the El Alto street,” FEJUVE’s mobilizations in the past were key in forcing the resignations of Goni (in October 2003) & Mesa (in June 2005).
Meanwhile, the announcement that a faction of the UJC (the Santa Cruz regionalist semi-paramilitary opposition group that, until recently, was regularly attacking MAS supporters) had signed an agreement to support Evo’s candidacy (along w/ the fan organization for two Santa Cruz soccer teams: Oriente Petrolero & Blooming) was an interesting twist (see story). The UJC & soccer fan clubs (“barras bravas”) are instrumental in mobilizing young cruceño/camba men into the streets. It’s perhaps ironic both that they’ve signed a political pact w/ Evo, and that the leaders of the Santa Cruz regionalist movement now denounce them as being manipulated for political purposes (“prebendalism”?).
Still, the election polls are becoming interesting. I’ve stated before that I thought Evo would win comfortably, just as he did in 2005. All signs suggest that he has the support of at least a slim majority of the Bolivian population. And, as in the 2005 campaign, he’s attempting to shore up that support among the middle classes. But for the election to be more than a pyrrhic victory, Evo needs to do two things: increase his vote share from 2005 (win by more than 54%) and gain control over the Senate. Despite some gains (for both government & opposition) over the last four years, the political situation in Bolivia can best be described as a stalemate. And given that 2010 (when Evo & the new legislature would be sworn in) will introduce a more decentralized political system, failure to move the ball forward would leave Evo & MAS exposed.
What makes the latest Ipsos poll interesting, is that it points to a growing polarization. Currently, Evo is polling highs of 72% in La Paz & 73% in Oruro. That would give him clear, crushing victories in two departments, increasing his support from 2005 (67% in La Paz & 63% in Oruro). But this is matched by significant decrease in Santa Cruz (polling 22% now; compared to 33% in 2005) & Chuquisaca (polling 47% now; 54% in 2005). Still, Evo has made some interesting gains in Beni (polling 26%; up from 16% in 2005) & Pando (polling 35%; up from 21% in 2005). In every place where Evo is polling less than 50% he is either trailing Manfred or holding a thin lead (as in Tarija, where Evo & Manfred are virtually tied, w/ SDM holding third place). But in Tarija, where Evo’s 31% polling lead beats Manfred (28%) by 3 points, he is par w/ his performance in 2005 (32%). In these close races, the undecideds will tip the balance. Pando, of course, is the surprise. After moving thousands of new residents (and troops, who registered as residents for the election) into Pando, he has moved it into the MAS column, but only barely. The poll shows Evo leading Manfred in Pando by only 3 points (35-32); here again the undecideds could tip the balance, but this will be the contest to watch.
There’s every indication that Evo will win. And his victory will be facilitated by a divided, disorganized opposition (and w/ no new faces). But I see no indication—yet—that Evo has actually expanded his support. If the opposition can somehow gain momentum, picking up some undecideds (which still make up 11% of respondents in Bolivia), it could prevent MAS from winning control over the senate. At the same time, as tensions w/in the MAS coalition continue, these could become a new source of worry for Evo, who has to ensure that he can shut out the opposition from winning any senate seats in La Paz & Oruro.
