The latest pre-electoral polls have been reported, and now we wait for the actual election. A few interesting points: 1) electoral support for Evo has been consistently lower than his approval rating (which has been on par w/ how he did in the recall referendum), 2) electoral support for Evo has increased from earlier this year (in part a function of shrinking undecideds but also efforts to appeal to middle class moderates), and 3) electoral support for Evo (according to polls) is about where he was in 2005.
If these numbers hold up, it will mean that MAS has been unable to expand its electorate from 2005. It will, however, mean that MAS has consolidated its electorate. Of course, new seat apportionment rules will likely benefit MAS in the legislative contest. But the various autonomies will make Bolivia more difficult to govern—for any president.
More tomorrow, after vote counts start coming in.
I'll go out on a limb to say Evo will make at least 65%. Polls, as usual, have responded to the interests of the poll-maker and have not counted the massive rural Evo vote, even in Santa Cruz. Saludos!
We'll see. Typically, polls have under-represented rural voters, that's true. But that's changed, even as Bolivia consistently becomes *more* urban (more than 70% of the population lives in major cities). So we'll see. Pollsters, whatever their ideology, want to be accurate. It's their livelihood, after all.