These are very, very early projections (from El Deber). So these could change, as new tallies come in. And the the final "official" count won't come for a few weeks. But so far, this is what the results of today's local/regional elections in Bolivia look like:
MAS has won three governors races (Cochabamba, Oruro, and Potosi). The MAS candidate is leading in two others (La Paz and Chuquisaca), but these seem likely to go to a second round of balloting. The lead in La Paz is large enough to be safe, but the Chuquisaca race is narrower. Of course, rural votes may come in later and change those tallies. Still, this is a gain from 2005, when MAS only carried three prefecture races (they were not yet called "governors" then). The races are also close in Pando (where MAS put considerable resources prior to the December 2009 presidential election, including transplanting thousands of families from pro-MAS regions) and Tarija (though in Tarija the opposition candidate is very close to the 50% mark to avoid a runoff). MAS did poorly in Santa Cruz and Beni, where the incumbent governors seem to have won reelection handily, and even with larger margins than in 2005.
The municipal races in the big cities are also significant. So far, it seems clear that MSM has again won the mayorship of La Paz. This is very significant, since MSM was until very recently a significant ally of MAS. During the campaign, the rhetoric intensified to the point where Evo and others threatened to jail the popular La Paz mayor (and democratization-era hero) Juan Del Granado. Apparently, after more than four years as close working allies, Evo suddenly discovered that Juan "Sin Miedo" (as he & his party are called) was "corrupt" due to his previous participation in pre-2005 governments. Of course, this didn't stop MAS from recruiting Roberto Fernandez, the son of populist Max Fernandez of UCS (both of whom actively took part in the worst of the patron-client relationships of the 1990s "neoliberal" era). Roberto was recruited to run for the mayorship of Santa Cruz against Percy Fernandez (no relationship) and Johnny (Roberto's brother). Percy looks to have won an easy reelection.
MAS looks to pick up the mayorships of Oruro and El Alto. But that was no surprise. What is a bit of a surprise is that MAS was unable to break through in a number of other cities: Potosi voted again for Rene Joaquino's AS (Rene led a failed presidential bid in December). Every other departmental capital backed an incumbent opposition party, except for Cobija (Pando), which is in a virtual 50/50 tie between MAS and the opposition candidate.
If these numbers hold, the big question will be how MAS did in the more than 320 "rural" municipal contests. I know that in many areas, micro-local (often indigenous community) parties ran against MAS. The 2004 municipal elections were seen as ones that "reordered the playing board." So far, it doesn't look like things have radically changed since then, at the local level. The big difference now, of course, is that many parties (e.g. MSM & AS) are now much less likely to work with MAS. This matters a lot, because in 2004 most noted that MAS had become the country's largest party. This is true in part because most contests were won by hyper-local parties (parties that only ran in a single municipality). Even then, MSM had emerged as the country's second largest party. So things will start to look interesting.
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