What happened yesterday in Ecuador was a type of coup, or golpe (to use the Spanish term).
I know there’s some debate over whether to consider it as such (Boz has a good rundown of both positions). Clearly, Correa is milking the situation to his best advantage (or at least hoping to). But that shouldn’t matter in terms of what to call the event itself. In fact, Correa would have to be a fool of a politician if he didn’t seek to spin the even to his best advantage. Another controversy concerns the intent and/or extent of the police uprising or mutiny. Greg Weeks, who I respect, uses the ambiguous and/or limited goals of the police protesters/mutineers to argue that it was not a “coup” (see his post).
It is just a semantics argument, but not an unimportant one. Obviously, Weeks & almost everyone else out there agrees that this was a political crisis that should not have happened in a democracy. Correa (like him or not) is an elected head of state. As such, an assault on his person (as well as on the institutions of government: the presidential palace, the legislature) are illegitimate means of expressing discontent w/ policies.
Also, the term “coup d’état” does have a specific pedigree, as Weeks point out. But I use the term “coup” or “golpe” in the broader meaning—the kind often used in Bolivia. Unlike Chile (a case Weeks is much more familiar w/), Bolivia (like Ecuador) has a much more established tradition of “golpes.” The Bolivian lexicon uses “golpe” (literally, a “strike” or “physical blow”) to include a broader range of activities. In fact, any armed uprising that strikes at one or more key institutions of power are considered a “golpe.” These can be “golpe military” (a “strike” by the military), a “golpe de palacio” (a “strike” from w/in the presidential palace itself), or a “golpe de partido” (a “strike” by a party, as in the 1949 and 1952 civilian putsches led by the MNR; the first failed, the second was successful & ushered in the Bolivian Revolution). And, of course, there can even be an “auto-golpe” (like when Fujimori launched his famous 1992 “self-coup”),
The situation in Ecuador qualifies as a “golpe.” Whehter the intent was specifically to overthrow Correa & replace him w/ someone else is, in my opinion, irrelevant. (Though of course, if Correa had died in the assault, which was a possibility, then the government would’ve been changed; surely the police who attacked the presidential palace were ware of this?) It’s also irrelevant that the “golpe” failed. There have been a number of failed coups in Ecuador’s history (including several kidnappings of the president by the military in the 1990s). It’s not success or failure that should qualify a “golpe.” It’s also equally impossible to determine the intent of the participants. Instead, I look at merely the scope of the phenomenon.
The police assaulted the presidential palace. They physically attacked the president, and took him to their hospital. By all accounts, they closed the legislature, preventing congressmen from entering their offices. The police then engaged in a firefight w/ loyalist army units seeking to rescue the president. During all this time, who was in charge of the country? I suspect that for a few hours, that issue was unclear. I believe that qualifies as a coup. If Correa had died in the assault, or if the army had chosen to sit it out, then we would have seen a new kind of government—one more likely to favor the police offeres’ demands—in power. I believe that qualifies as a coup. The only tangle is that the day ended w/ a rescued president back in charge. This looks like a failed coup, but a coup nonetheless.
I come to this conclusion after reflecting on the experience of another president: In February 2003, Bolivia’s Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada faced a similar situation. The police, demanding that their salaries be raised, mutinied in the capital. Under the command of a Major David Vargas, the elite GES (the Bolivian SWAT) assaulted the presidential palace (the bullet holes are still there). Like in Ecuador, the military rode to the beleaguered president’s rescue, engaging in a brief firefight w/ the police. Other than the ideological orientation of the presidents, the differences in their situations were minimal. In 2003 many (myself included) considered what happened in Bolivia a “golpe.” against the president. I stand by that assessment.
The real question—and not just a semantics one—is whether Correa will face a different fate than Goni. The February 2003 police mutiny was the first major sign that Goni’s government coalition was in serious trouble. As we know, it didn’t survive the end of the year. Will Correa’s government end the same way? The military offered only tepid support, as did other actors (including, surprisingly, Correa’s own brother). Or will Correa’s government emerge strengthened by the experience? The future is uncertain.
But I think it’s difficult to escape the conclusion that this was a “coup”—at least of some “diminished” subtype.
I respectfully disagree. I would just argue that your definition differs from every other definition of coup that I've seen in political science.
That's fair, too. I agree it doesn't fit the traditional definition of "coup d'état" -- but it comes awfully close. I think if we can have a diminished subtype of "democracy," that we can have a diminished subtype of "coup."
Perhaps we need a new term that covers things beyond "protest" but isn't as precise as the kind of coup traditionally defined as such?
Just anecdotally, I'm seeing that most of those who argue that the Correa affair was not a coup are old timers (and especially old Ecuador hands like Will Watters and Simon Pachano). Those who argue for a coup, and were sending the more breathless reports, were a bit younger.
Ecuador has a long history of insurrections (like the time Leon was held hostage at Taura airbase). Maybe this is a case of been there, seen that?
That's about right, I think. Perhaps we need something better than "intervention" to describe those events? In Bolivia the term "golpe" is used more broadly. It can even be used when a president sends his supporters to surround an opposition-dominated legislature & demand it bends to his wishes. In Bolivia it just means anytime someone seriously takes a whack at any democratic institution in hopes of changing policy and/or administration.
It would go under terms like "insurrection" or "mutiny", and dependent on whether such a movement really has popular support.
Unless you take into account last year's elections in which Correa was re-elected under a new constitution, no president since 1996 has completed a full constitutional term. And 12 years has been the maximum for uninterrupted terms in Ecuadorian history.
Correa is an odd duck. He is clearly not as radical as, say, Hugo Chavez (and is, IMHO, far more intelligent) but his "Citizen's Revolution" is no more than a blend of social democracy and populism. And Ecuador, as we know, has long veered towards personalist and populist politics which Correa and his two leading opponents (Gutierrez and Noboa) share, and which was more or less pioneered by Velasco.
Furthermore, there are numerous social movements who are clearly unhappy with Correa's governance, and especially the indigenist movements- which are very strong in Ecuador and played a vocal role in previous depositions.
I agree with Simon Pachano, whom I know pretty well. It was a police insurrection (or mutiny, if you like) and nothing more, until Correa showed up at the 1er Regimento de Policia and really lit things up, like throwing gasoline on a fire, I'd say.
DV's brief sum-up on Correa and the general situation is accurate from my perspective. I see Correa as kind of a repeat of people like Eloy Alfaro (turn of century Liberal), five-time Presi Velasco Ibarra, and Leon Febres Cordero: charismatic, egotistic, arrogant, and always looking for a fight, which is what Correa got Thursday before last.
DV's also right in that Correa's pissed off a variety of groups because of the way he's rammed his legislative projects through the Asamblea Nacional, and the tactics he's used to do so.
Indeed, the police strike was the latest and highest profile reaction to Correa and the political agenda he's pushed since he came into office. The State of Exception is supposed to end this evening, Friday, Oct. 8, but tension is still palpable here in Quito, and I'm not sure that this is all over...
You are right, Ecuador's tradition of caudillismo is something that never changes through the changes in regime and party system. As said above, all of them, Correa, Gutierrez, Noboa, etc appear to be different sides of the same coin- populist, personalist and clientelist, with a weak party system to enforce these tendencies. It's been that way since Velasco was there, even though Gabriel Garcia Moreno and Eloy Alfaro were the classical caudillos of their time.
Peru is no different, despite the fact that it has at least three long-lived parties (APRA, AP, PPC), the same tendencies towards personalism exemplified by Fujimori. In Bolivia it's more or less the same these days.
Correa slammed the previous Congress as corrupt, obstructive, clientelist, and unrepresentative. Yet the new National Assembly elected last year does have a more diverse representation of local interests (helped by the electoral system). And some of Correa's most rabid opposition comes not from the "Right", but from the (Maoist) Extreme Left- who I believe had protests against Hillary Clinton's recent visit, if I'm correct.
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That's fair, too. I accede it doesn't fit the acceptable analogue of "coup d'état" -- but it comes clumsily close. I anticipate if we can accept a beneath subtype of "democracy," that we can accept a beneath subtype of "coup."GED Practice Test Perhaps we charge a new appellation that covers things above "protest" but isn't as absolute as the affectionate of accomplishment commonly authentic as such?
You are right, Ecuador's attitude of caudillismo is article that never changes through the changes in administration and affair system. As said above, all of them, Correa, Gutierrez, Noboa, etc arise to be altered abandon of the aforementioned coin- populist, personalist and clientelist, with a anemic affair arrangement to accomplish these tendencies. It's been that way back Velasco was there, alike admitting Gabriel Garcia Moreno and Eloy Alfaro were the classical caudillos of their time.
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I was skeptical about the coup claims from the beginning, although I will say we don't usually see "neo-liberal" governments cutting the police or military budgets. The attempt against Chavez and the successful coup in Honduras were classics, heavy handed and US backed. combat vests
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