I was recently asked to write something about Bolivia’s foreign policy for e-IR, a new online international relations journal published by students at Oxford, University of Leicester, and the London School of Economics. The essay (“Bolivia’s New International Stage”) looks at the country’s international relations in the first two years of Evo’s government.

As expected, voters in Tarija approved an autonomy statute by wide margins. Though final counts aren’t yet in, preliminary counts show that the “Sí” vote reached about 80%. Voters in Santa Cruz, Beni, and Pando have already approved autonomy statutes. It also currently looks as if voter turnout was higher than in the three other departments, despite attempts at preventing the vote by pro-MAS activists.

Roberto Sándoval, campaign manager for an opposition candidate, has been freed (see news report). The ruling was made by a judge in an El Alto court, after state prosecutors were unable to present any evidence, indictments, or warrants against Sándoval. In effect, the judge ruled the arrest—made by agents of the Intelligence and Government ministries—illegal (see previous post).

The campaign manager (Roberto Sándoval) for an opposition candidate for the Chuquisaca prefecture (Sabina Cuéllar) was detained yesterday (see news report). He’s accused various crimes, including sedition & attempted “magnicide” (stemming from pro-government & opposition forces a few weeks ago in Sucre). If true, they’re serious crimes, of course. Yet the circumstances of his detention seemed questionable: A number of unidentified, masked men forced him into a vehicle. The government only acknowledged his arrest & announced its indictment 12 hours later, after his wife denounced his kidnapping.

Bolivia’s politics shifted south this weekend. Evo suspended a planned trip to the Sucre (on the 199th anniversary of Bolivia’s “declaration of independence”¹) after university students & other local groups mobilized in opposition.

A quick clarification in light of today’s argument that Bolivia’s political opposition suggests that a recall referendum may be unconstitutional: I don’t care.

A surprising development in Bolivia: If Evo enacts a law approved by the Senate (as he said he would), there will be a recall referendum in Bolivia as early as August (90 days after the law is enacted). The recall referendum would put Evo & the country’s nine prefects up for an up or down popular vote of confidence.

Human Rights Foundation (HRF) has posted its preliminary report on the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum.

While all attention is currently on Santa Cruz, it’s important to look ahead to June 22. That’s when Tarija will hold its autonomy referendum (making it the 4th department to hold such a vote). Santa Cruz leaders will wait until then to negotiate collectively w/ the central government.

The Santa Cruz departmental electoral court (CDE) website has updated official counts, as they’re processed. They’re using the same software/process (SIRENA) as the national electoral court (CNE)—which is the software/process used by each of the regional electoral courts during national elections.

The official count will be made public by Friday. But this morning’s reports show that “Sí” (pro autonomy) won by 86% to 14% in yesterday’s Santa Cruz autonomy referendum. It seems unlikely that these figures will change significantly. Some brief analysis:

The official results aren’t in yet. But El Deber (and other media) reports that the “Sí” vote won in the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum—by a wide margin (exit polling has it 85.3% to 14.7% in the city, 89.6% to 10.4% in the rural areas).

Tomorrow, Santa Cruz goes to the polls in its autonomy referendum. The central government is still adamantly opposed, of course. On the eve of the election, it’s also clear that there is little that can be done to stop it. But what will happen?

Boz beat me to the latest poll numbers out of Bolivia: Evo retains 54% public approval (down from 56% in March) across Bolivia, according to the latest poll.

The question is, perhaps, exaggerated. Clearly, Evo—still the head of Bolivia’s cocalero federation—is an important leader w/in Bolivia’s anti-neoliberal social movements.

There have been calls in the past for Evo to step down, but now they’ve become more commonplace.

We’re now a little more than three weeks away from the May 4th autonomy referendum in Santa Cruz. A broad social movement¹ calling for regional autonomy has been active in force since January 2004, coming on the heels of the October 2003 “gas war” (which pitted a very different constellation of social movements against Goni’s government).

Things in Bolivia have become increasingly tense in the last few weeks. We’re now about five weeks away from the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum (set for Sunday, May 4th).

The spring speaker series I put together at Dickinson is winding down, w/ two final speakers who will focus on the Andes.

The problems stemming from Colombia’s incursion into Ecuador a few days ago (when Colombian armed forces killed a leading FARC rebel leader) continue. Much of the problem stems from two counts:

Boz has an interesting thread on “who wins?” in a possible Venezuela-Colombia war. There is no reason (yet) to believe a war is imminent, of course. But the possibility of inter-state warfare in Latin America shouldn’t bee too hastily dismissed.

Latin American politics sometimes takes on broad, regional patterns. About two years ago, many began proclaiming or denouncing (depending on ideological bias) the “new left” in Latin America. Whether that trend is leftist or “populist” or something else, or whether that trend is continuing, or even whether it’s one trend (as opposed to divergent trends) is still a matter of discussion, of course.

In a brief 30-minute session last night, Bolivia’s legislature approved two constitutional referendums & annulled the proposed Santa Cruz & Beni autonomy referendum. The vote took place as pro-MAS protestors lay siege to the parliament building for several days, and as at least two female opposition candidates were beaten as they tried to enter the legislative session. Opposition legislators were refused the floor, the votes took place following no discussion, and the brief session took place with dozens of pro-MAS protesters crowded into the gallery.

If you’re in the Dickinson area, you may want to check out the next installment of our Latin American Studies spring speaker series. Anthropologist Steve Striffler (University of Arkansas) will speak on “Colombia, Coal, and Transnational Labor Solidarity.” The focus is on the effects of coal mining on indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities.

Boz, who frequently posts poll numbers from across Latin America, has some interesting poll numbers for Peru.

If you’re in the Dickinson area next week, you may be interested in the next installments of our Latin American Studies speaker series.

First, let me be clear: the two cases are not similar in some critical & fundamental ways. But what is interesting is the political international repercussions that a secession implies.

Fidel Castro has (finally) stepped down, officially. I’m not sure what that actually means for US policy towards Cuba, Cuba’s policy towards the US, or international relations more generally. After all, unlike Generalissimo Franco, Castro isn’t dead. Castro is instead scheduled to resume writing his political column full time. But I’m hopeful that this will mean a transition to some form of democracy—and w/ it, a more rational US-Cuban relationship.

In an interesting (though not entirely surprising) political turn, Evo has been reigned in by his own supporters (the organizaciones de base). Only days before, Evo had publicly struck out against the Santa Cruz autonomy movement (which is steamrolling forward), claiming that his supporters were willing to use force if necessary, then calling on the military & “social bases” to mobilize.

There’s been some discussion about a recent ABC News report that a Fulbright scholar in Bolivia was asked to “spy” on Venezuelans & Cubans in Bolivia (to be precise: to report if he had seen any, who, and where) during his mandatory security briefing.¹ I’ll refer to the discussion at Gringo Tambo (a group blog of primarily ex-Fulbrighters who study Bolivia).

If you’re in the Dickinson area next Thursday, come see the first speaker in our spring Latin American Studies speaker series.

It’s hard to believe how quickly time passes. Javi is almost a month old now (and fussier by the day). The lack of sleep is starting to slowly wear me down. I still have two major projects (book manuscript, article rewrite) to finish—because in two weeks grading papers will take over my life.

There’s a big brouhaha over Chavez’s recent statement that he chews coca.

For some time now, Peru’s government has been demanding that Bolivia extradite Walter Chávez, a Peruvian citizen wanted for his alleged connection to MRTA (Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement, an urban Maoist terrorist organization). Walter Chávez is a fairly well known journalist w/ leftist sympathies who served as advisor to Evo Morales’s presidential campaigns in 2002 & 2005. The Bolivian government has declined to extradite him to Peru & has offered political asylum. The (relatively minor) issue has been on the back burner for some time now. Walter Chávez, of course, denies the allegations; he stepped down as a presidential advisor in February 2007.

By now most people have commented on the defeat of Chávez’s constitutional reform proposal in yesterday’s referendum vote. The fact that Chávez came out quickly to accept the defeat is a positive signal. It means that Venezuela is not as “authoritarian” as some of its harshest critics would suggest. Hopefully, this will push Chávez to reconsider some of his ambitions (i.e. his desire for indefinite reelections)—especially since he made the constitutional referendum a personal issue (a vote for or against himself).

When did this kind of power-grabbing come back en vogue?

Yes, Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez wants to have indefinite reelection for president (but not for governors or mayors) in the new constitution. Seems pretty consistent for that administration. Bolivia’s Evo Morales wants indefinite reelection for presidents (but not for prefects or mayors—why does this sound so familiar?) put in that new constitution as well. So does Ecuador’s Rafael Correa.

This is cross-posted at the LAPIS blog:

The Argentine presidential elections are coming up tomorrow (Sunday, 28 October). It’s highly likely that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the wife of current president Néstor Kirchner, will win the presidential race. The latest Angus Reid poll puts her at 47%—w/ her nearest rival (Elisa Carrió) pulling in barely 16%.

I’m teaching a multidisciplinary introduction to Latin American studies course next semester. It took me a while to conceptualize the course, but here’s the syllabus. Below are some of the texts I’m assigning (also in my Amazon bookstore). Comments are always welcome.

Ben Whitford (of Backyard Briefing) has a column in yesterday’s Guardian Unlimited: “The trouble with starting over.” In it, Whitford puts current attempts to draft new constitutions in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador into historical context. Such as the fact that Latin America has collectively gone through more than 200 constitutions since independence. It’s enough to makes one skeptical of the possibility of lasting change w/ such a long history of “disposable democracy.”

I haven’t been able to follow this as closely as I would like. But Ecuador held elections for a constituent assembly on Sunday. So far, it seems that Correa’s “party” won a majority (though official results aren’t yet in). It’ll be interesting to see how the situation unfolds there. He has promised not to follow the Venezuela-Bolivia model (though his rhetoric suggests otherwise).

This will be the fourth “outsider” in the Andes to win an election & soon after rewrite the constitution. This motley crew includes: Alberto Fujimori (an agronomist at a rural university), Hugo Chávez (an army colonel), Evo Morales (leader of the coca farmers’ union), and Rafael Correa (a PhD in economics from Illinois). Though Correa is perhaps less of an “outsider” than the others (he was a former cabinet minister), all (except Evo) were first elected w/o the backing of an institutionalized political party.

UK’s The Guardian has a fascinating report on Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez as an example of “television populism” that’s definitely worth a look. Chávez’s regime is very unique & highly unusual, blending “classic” populism (which also relied on performance & spectacle) w/ 21st century “reality” entertainment.

Looks like Fujimori is finally going to be extradited back to Peru to face charges related to the abuse of power during his 1992-2000 semi-authoritarian regime. He had been living in Japan for several years; he was recently aprehended, while in Chile.

I covered Fujimori as one of my four cases (the others were Perón, Várgas, and Chávez) of populist Latin American leaders in my “Heroes & Villains: Populism in Latin America” course last semester. These are the materials we used:

More at my Pronto* Peru bookstore.

It’s perhaps fitting that today—on the anniversary of “9/11”—my Democracy & Democratization class is reading the first chapter of Samuel Huntington’s The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (1991). It’s fitting because “9/11” is both the anniversary of the terrorist attacks of 2001 and of the US-supported (if not directly “backed”) Chilean military coup of 1973.

While Huntington’s work has been controversial, he’s made some important insights that aren’t easily dismissed—and shouldn’t be overlooked. One of them is this snippet on pages 29-30:

“… the future of democracy in the world is of special importance to Americans. The United States is the premier democratic country in the modern world, and its identity as a nation is inseparable from its commitment to liberal and democratic values. Other nations may fundamentally change their political systems and continue their existence as nations. The United States does not have that option.”

Most of the class discussion will focus on the Huntington’s introduction to the idea of “waves” of democratization, which they’re reading alongside Dankward Rustow’s 1970 classic article, “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model.” But I hope we have a chance to parse out this Huntington nugget (which closely follows an argument that increased democratization throughout the world may bring more peace & less violence). Because what Huntington notes in this passage is that US political identity is wrapped up in our belief in liberal, democratic values. The US isn’t only the premier democracy (for all its faults), but the world’s premier case of “civic” (as opposed to organic, ethnic, or cultural) nationalism.

The US wasn’t founded on the belief that “the American people” should govern themselves (in the way that, say, the Serbian nation-state is explicitly Serbian and not for others in Serbian territory—this example could be applied to a host of “ethnic” nation-states), but on the belief that people should. Re-read the first line of the Declaration of Independence; it clearly implies a universal scope. And it suggests that the US has a founding mission to promote the spread of democracy.

Perhaps if we paid more attention to the struggle for freedom & democracy around the world, we wouldn’t be so surprised in international relations. And we may need to constantly remind ourselves that our first priority—or “prime directive”—as a state is to act in ways that promote democratic values around the world. Perhaps the last question made before any policy decision should be this: “Will this policy hinder or advance the cause of freedom in the world?”

I’ve started adding sub-categories to my Amazon bookstore, building country-specific pages under the Latin America category. So far I’ve only added a few books on three countries: Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. If you have other (academic) titles you specifically recommend, please let me know. Even so, the sidebar to the right will give you other, related recommendations.

A day after a regionalist opposition-led strike, Bolivia’s government shot back. It has frequently attacked the opposition for its ties to the US & other international NGOs (such ties do exist, of course), specifically singling out the US for its “political” aid. Of course, isn’t all aid “political”? Or does Venezuela’s millions in military & other aid not serve a “political” purpose? But today’s attacks resembled a witch hunt.

My latest essay for Tiempo Político¹ is up today. It’s titled: “Reelección indefinida y ‘democradura’: ¿un modelo chavista para Bolivia?” I’ve posted similar discussions on indefinite reelection here & here. I’ve provided an English translation below.

Not surprisingly, Venezuela’s legislature unanimously approved changes to the constitution that would (among other things) extend the presidential term from six to seven years & allow for unlimited reelection of presidents. Essentially, Hugo Chávez could be president for as long as he wishes (he’s currently been president for almost ten years).

For all Evo’s problems managing his increasingly fractured MAS coalition (see previous post), he’s making some important headway in foreign diplomacy (along w/ some mistakes).

I barely made the deadline to be included in the CD, but I’ve sent out the paper I’m presenting next month at the Montréal LASA conference. It’s not nearly as “finished” as I’d have liked, but there’ll be plenty of time to revise it later. Here’s the (overly ambitious, not fully realized) abstract:

In a recent post, listed a recent article by Martin Brienen (“Interminable Revolution: Populism and Frustration in 20th Century Bolivia”) . The article was published in the most recent (Spring-Winter 2007) issue of SAIS Review, which has a number of interesting articles on populism around the world (not just Latin America).

Greg Weeks posted a brief comment on the recent proposal (finally formally unveiled) by MAS to allow for presidential re-election in Bolivia. This was seen coming for a while (it was discussed in public discourse for several months). But it came late to the formal agenda of the Constituent Assembly, which has basically thrown a monkey wrench in the works—and this as the Assembly seems unable to make its original August deadline for a draft constitution (which was supposed to go to public referendum on 6 August).

With all driving to/from Washington DC yesterday, I didn’t get a chance to look over this week’s edition of Tiempo Político.¹ But there’s an excellent article by Armandy Méndez Morales, “Superar el culturalismo revolucionario populista [Overcoming populist revolutionary culturalism].”

I suppose I should comment on the controversial FIFA ruling that disallows soccer matches at high altitude. The decision means that World Cup (and other important) soccer matches can’t be played in La Paz, Bolivia (the ban applies to other locations as well). It would also apply to other cities at “high” altitude. I understand the indignation, but the issue, sadly, has become another distraction taking away from larger social, political, and economic issues.

I’m traveling to Bolivia in a few days. In some ways, this is nothing new. Though my family moved to Michigan in 1985, we frequently went back to visit relatives & friends, especially in Santa Cruz & La Paz. It’s also nothing new to K8; we met there (we were both Fulbright fellows). But this time, we must consciously plan our visit around potential bloqueos & street protests.

I don’t usually use my blog for “advocacy” links. But I’ve decided to post a “Free RCTV” logo on the main page. There are numerous other causes I could be supporting, but I’ve chosen this one. In part, because I worry about the future of democracy in Latin America. Venezuela’s “partidocracia” (party-ocracy) of the 1970s-1990s was problematic, to be sure; like many, I was hopeful when Chávez was elected in 1998. The 1980s “lost decade” were very difficult on Venezuela’s poor, and it was clear that the existing parties were no longer capable of solving the political, economic, and social crisis. Many were pleased to see Chávez abandon golpismo (coup-making) in favor of electoralism; we hoped he had become a democrat. Since then, he has slowly concentrated powers in his hands—and I mean his personal hands, not his party or movement.

The news from Bolivia is not so good. It’s sad that June is now just recognized as the start of “bloqueo season” in the country (K8 & I will be traveling just then; will we be able to reach La Paz?). But things are getting dicey again.

I should comment on this weekend’s events in Venezuela, after Hugo Chávez closed down an opposition television station (RCTV) by not reinstating its license. There were, of course, significant protests in Venezuela (broken up by government security forces). Greg Weeks has a short, but excellent post on the subject—followed by some interesting comments [Ed. here’s another good thread from Boz].

Today is Mother’s Day in Bolivia. I’ve always liked this holiday; though perhaps that’s partly due to heavy “patriotic” government indoctrination I received in Bolivian elementary schools. In contrast to the US holiday, it (in part) honors one of the country’s “founders” (a founding mother?): Juana Azurduy de Padilla.

I never understood why many jumped to the conclusion that Evo Morales was an “indigenous” political leader in Bolivia. Yes, he’s primarily of indigenous origin. But does that make him an “indigenous” leader? Especially in Bolivia, which has a long tradition of indigenous political movements—the kataristas—who were mostly concentrated in the Andean Altiplano. During the 1980s, the most important of these was MRTKL (Movimiento Revolucionario Tupaj Katari de Revolución); in the 1990s, it was MIP (Movimiento Indígena Pachakuti). These weren’t the only such movements. And it’s important to note that Evo was never a member of any of these. He belongs to a different trajectory.

A short column I wrote for Tiempo Político¹ came out today. I won’t have time to translate it, but the column (“Ingeniería electoral: el sistema de voto alternativo [Electoral engineering: the alternative vote system]”) is based on this this earlier post. And w/ that I’m off on the road to Pittsburgh.

The conflict between Bolivia’s president, Evo Morales, and the judicial system continues (previous post). Yesterday, the head of the supreme court resigned. The other court ministers have stated that they’ll resist the executive branch. But a MAS spokesperson threatened to topple the court through social pressure. This is the same kind of threat made January against Cochabamba’s prefect; clashes there left three dead & several injured in January.

As Bolivia’s constituent assembly starts gearing up to write draft constitutions, a confrontation between the executive & judicial branches is brewing. But this isn’t directly connected to any of the legalities of the constituent assembly itself. Instead, this is merely the typical kind of confrontation common to “delegative” democracies.